ࡱ> y oBbjbj .t{{I:%pp84 " $(ڜ   ėA#A#A# A# A#A#Jl\sp%oBuڗ0 gozujss0td#  A#     b                p : Session 30: Emerging powers, national interests and the future of multilateralism Overall theme: Is multilateralism in crisis? Moderator Mr Michel Gressot, Senior Advisor, Swiss Agency for Development and Co-operation, Federal Department of Foreign Affairs Speakers Mr Bipul Chatterjee, Deputy Executive Director, Consumer Unity and Trust Society (CUTS International) Ms Catherine Grant, Programme Head, Economic Diplomacy, South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA) Dr Lin Guijun, Vice-President, University of International Business and Economics (UIBE), Beijing Dr mit zlale, Director, Training and Research Institute for Public Policy (TRIPP), Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey (TEPAV) Ms Sandra Polnia Rios, Director, Centro de Estudos de Integrao e Desenvolvimento (CINDES) Mr Pedro da Motta Veiga, Director, CINDES Organized by CINDES Confederao Nacional da Indstria (CNI) UIBE Report written by CINDES Wednesday 26 September 9:00 11:00 Abstract At the roots of the crisis of multilateralism there is a strong shift in the political and policy landscape in which trade policies and negotiations evolve. One of the main factors at the origin of such shifts has been the emergence of the South. Emerging economies are becoming more and more important in world trade and economy. Their influence individually or in coalitions like BRICs (Brazil, the Russian Federation, India and China) or BASIC (Brazil, South Africa, India and China) is growing, and international economic policy-making must take into account their interests and visions on the global agenda. In any post-Doha Round scenario, their stances and interests will be one of the main factors shaping the future of multilateralism. Understanding what they think about the multilateral trade system and its future is vital to set up a broad and solid basis for the development of multilateralism. The panel brought together experts of five emerging countries from different regions of the world Brazil, China, India, South Africa and Turkey to address these issues, focusing on the following questions: Which domestic and international factors shape the visions of the emerging countries on the future of trade multilateralism? Is multilateralism considered relevant and applicable to their domestic development agenda, taking into account the challenges these countries will face in the coming years? Which kind of trade multilateralism captures the preferences of these countries for the post-Doha period? How can the emerging countries constructively contribute to the improvement of multilateralism, according to their interests and preferences? Is there room for coalitions among emerging countries as a mechanism to foster the emergence of a new multilateralism? 1. Presentations by the panellists (a) Mr Pedro da Motta Veiga, Director, CINDES In a presentation entitled Brazil, trade multilateralism and the ϲʹ: a medium-term perspective, Mr da Motta Veiga summarized the results of a task force which gathered views of Brazilian trade specialists on how to build a Brazilian proposal for the multilateral trade system. The presentation was organized around three main questions: What are the conditioning factors affecting Brazils positions in the multilateral trade negotiations? What characteristics must trade multilateralism have to correspond to Brazils interests and policy preferences? Which should be the main drivers and components of a Brazilian multilateral trade agenda? Multilateralism is the negotiating forum historically prioritized by Brazil in the trade area. The country does not feel comfortable in the world of preferential agreements. The country is undergoing a productive transformation whose vectors are the industrial and agribusiness segments natural resource-intensive. The task-force concluded that the four most likely trends in Brazil were: (i) the increase in the weight of sectors intensive in natural resources in the industrial structure; (ii) the transformation of the industry towards a less diversified, but more competitive structure; (iii) the consolidation of internationalized competitive segments in the service sector; and (iv) the continuity of the recent trend for Brazilian companies to invest abroad. According to Mr da Motta Veiga, other domestic factor to be taken into account included Brazils aspiration for international recognition. Brazil will have to assume growing responsibilities in relation to the multilateral trade system which may require the country to distance itself gradually from its traditional position as the developing countries representative. He believed that at least three external factors should be added to these considerations: The accession of two large emerging economies to the ϲʹ (China and the Russian Federation), which has produced a substantial shift in the balance of power within the multilateral trade system. The growth in the number of preferential trade agreements, which may generate the relative erosion of market access conditions to Brazilian exports vis--vis those of the signatories of these accords. The emergence of global challenges not directly associated to trade issues, but having intersections with the area of trade. Mr da Motta Veiga elaborated that in any scenario and whatever the policy preference that dominates the setting of the Brazilian trade agenda, multilateralism would continue to be the priority negotiating forum for Brazil. He expressed that the main characteristics of multilateralism which fit Brazils interests were the consolidation and improvement of the existing rules and the gradual incorporation of new issues into the agenda. He concluded that the capacity of the multilateral negotiations to generate results regarding the reduction of tariff barriers had been drastically reduced. At the same time, trade flows are growingly being distorted by non-tariff mechanisms. New efforts of tariff liberalization should keep the backseat in the multilateral agenda, but they can be pursued in the regional and bilateral forums. Three elements must be taken into account: The economic and political importance of multilateralism for Brazil's international strategy. The global transformations following the emergence of Asia. The prospect of productive transformation opening up for the Brazilian economy. (b) Dr Lin Guijun, Vice-President, UIBE In his presentation Chinas stakes in the ϲʹ and the role it could play, Dr Lin stated that China resents being discriminated in the ϲʹ, citing: (i) the creation, for the first time, of special safeguard mechanism for manufactured goods; (ii) the invention of non-market economy status for China; (iii) the large number of anti-dumping and countervailing duties against China; and (iv) the review mechanism after eight years of accession. Although most of Chinas export expansion has occurred after accession to the ϲʹ, Dr Lin did not believe this could be explained by multilateral reductions in trade barriers. A key factor for this impressive performance is Chinas participation in global vertical specialization. He expressed that Chinas main interests in the ϲʹ were: a relative stable exchange rate system guaranteed market access to Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries improved access to markets in developing countries developing a new approach to disciplines related to anti-dumping and safeguard measures uninterrupted and dynamic global supply chains the further opening of its domestic market to foreign investors. Regionalism cannot protect Chinas fundamental trade interests. Its exports are greatly diversified across regions, which means that increased access to global markets is in Chinas interest. Dr Lin commented that the main priorities in Chinas domestic agenda were the expansion of the domestic demand and the upgrading of its industries. The objectives were to move up along the global value chain improving its production patterns from labor intensive to capital intensive and skills and knowledge-intensive patterns and to develop a new generation of export products. Dr Lin concluded by comparing Chinese and Russian accession commitments, commenting that, in many cases, Chinas liberalization measures went far beyond those offered by the Russian Federation. (c) Dr mit zlale, Director, TRIPP, TEPAV Dr zlale acknowledged that the entrance of Turkey in a customs union with the European Union had not only fostered the increase of manufactured goods in Turkish global exports, but also in exports to the European Union. In spite of this, however, the country does not have any star export industries, and the loss of competitiveness is a major challenge. When compared to the 12 most recent EU member states, he continued, Turkish competitiveness lags behind in many factors, such as education, technological readiness, macroeconomic stability although it ranks a little better than BRIC. Dr zlale noted that post-crisis the slow recovery process in the European markets had had a very negative effect on Turkey. Diversifying exports to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) markets was the countrys first response to the crisis. He explained that although this helped the performance of Turkish exports during the first year of the crisis, Europe was still Turkeys major market and the EU share in Turkeys global exports was still around 46 per cent. Dr zlale then described the increase in the number of regional trade agreements (RTAs) Turkey has with its neighbours including Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Egypt, the European Communities, the European Free Trade Area (EFTA), Georgia, Montenegro, Morocco, the Occupied Palestinian Territory, the Syria Arab Republic and Tunisia. RTAs are flourishing worldwide, he explained and listed several reasons for the rise of regionalism and the fall of multilateralism in the Turkish agenda: problems in negotiation more bargaining power with RTAs greater market share and easier market access barriers to trade and non-tariff barriers in RTAs are reduced more quickly and to a significant extent as long as multilateralism fails to liberalize international trade, regionalism tends to continue. But he warned of the danger of being excluded from the RTA block for non-members and the complicated conflicts arising from the multiple RTA memberships the spaghetti bowl. Increasing relations with MENA could foster the diversification of exports. However, Dr zlale did not believe it provided a long-term solution, due to the quality of exports and the value added to the size of the MENA market as a whole. Although Turkey is one of the leading exporters in the region, structural problems such as competitiveness still exist. He concluded that there was a high probability that increased regionalism and the associated EU policies would emerge as a challenge. MENA is far from providing a sustainable solution there should be greater focus on a new industrial policy design. (d) Ms Catherine Grant, Programme Head, Economic Diplomacy, SAIIA In the multilateral trade negotiations, began Ms Grant, South Africa aims to represent the interests of the whole continent. The ϲʹ is at center stage of South African trade policy, but inequalities and imbalances in the world trade system hinder the development objectives of all of Africa. From a South African perspective, she continued, it is important that the ϲʹ system improves transparency, social dialogue and the participation of the stakeholders. Ms Grant believed the countrys agenda for the multilateral trade negotiations included: policy space to implement domestic policies geared to foster domestic development improving market access and rules in agriculture more defensive stances with regards to services and investments. She argued that there were other relevant issues affecting South African views of trade multilateralism. For example, how climate change impacts on trade. She believed this was a very relevant issue not only due to the impacts of domestic policies responding to mitigation policies on the market access conditions for African products, but also due the climate effects on the production conditions in many countries. Ms Grant acknowledged the inclusion of South Africa as a member of BRICS, and she considered this to be very relevant for the country. In conclusion, she expressed South Africas particular interest in the creation of the BRICS Development Bank. (e) Mr Bipul Chatterjee, Deputy Executive Director, CUTS International Mr Chatterjee started by listing Indias main challenges: promotion of economic growth reduction and elimination of poverty promotion of environmental protection. He acknowledged that these challenges demanded a significant increase in productivity, which called for policy space to implement incentives for the industrial sector. He believed the opening of Indias trade was increasing but there are many doubts about its impacts on jobs generation and on the participation of small and medium companies, which are the main end goals. Mr Chatterjee remarked that the relations between trade and climate change were very sensitive to India. There is much uncertainty about what should be the appropriate approach to incorporate this issue in the multilateral trade agenda. He concluded with another very important topic of food security. He reported a concern that, in the long term, India might become a net food-importing country which was perceived as a serious threat to food security. 2. Conclusions In concluding, the panel addressed the points raised during the discussion. There is a disconnection between the emerging countries self-perceptions and the perceptions dominant in the West regarding the situation of these economies. The five presentations highlighted domestic fragilities and competitiveness gaps and the need to implement domestic policies geared to increasing productivity and the upgrading of their participation in the global value chains. In most countries, except for China, there is a concern with the risks of reducing diversification of the production structure. The panel acknowledged that there was more competition than complementarity among the BRICS production structures, and most of them face fierce competition from China in domestic and external markets. This allowed little room for devising common ground in the coalition to shape a new agenda for trade multilateralism. In closing, the panel members remarked that, with the exception of Turkey, multilateralism is the main priority for their countries trade agenda. Their recent good economic performance has been possible under the current rules of the ϲʹ. In general, the domestic agenda for the ϲʹ imply incremental reforms. None of the panel considered profound reforms in trade multilateralism.     PAGE  PAGE 6   QRS`bdfwxy  ̺̺޺އudVdE h RhOJQJ^JmH sH h?OJQJ^JmH sH  h?h?OJQJ^JmH sH #h Rh 65OJQJ^JmH sH h?5OJQJ^JmH sH #h RhsN5OJQJ^JmH sH #h RhcZ5OJQJ^JmH sH #h$h$5OJQJ^JmH sH #h RhsR5OJQJ^JmH sH h$5OJQJ^JmH sH #h RhD 5OJQJ^JmH sH RS  s F . 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