ࡱ> ( </ 0DTimes New Roman̳0~0DGaramond Roman̳0~0  @n?" dd@  @@`` X*I&) ,4     c $@ g4FdFd~08l ppp@ <4BdBd<4!d!d\ ?V-11 April 2002  WTO-WB SymposiumO =8The Economic Implications of Liberalising Mode 4 Trade *96 (1   #L Alan Winters University of Sussex@$ Approaches to TMNPThe polar forms: International trade models International migration models Intermediate approaches: sectoral studies business plan modelH:%:%  Trade Models,scale specialisation technology competition  Nhigh barriers threat to competition pervasiveness of services size of services Trade and Factor Rewardsfactor price equalisation trade and migration are substitutes BUT wage differences could persist: productivity scale taxes more factors than goods; complete specialisation; factor intensity reversals$bfbf,  Migration ModelsTMNP is NOT permanent migration but labour forces change similarly especially in  revolving door TMNP$g^ Wages before Mobility  Wages after Mobility   Winters  Quantifying the Barriers|wage in S additional costs of supply: transport, accomodation, visas, registration  QRs excessive regulation immigration controls price comparisons - difficult even under easier conditionsH&4*;&4*;,1 fBusiness Plan Model  Business Plan Model  Intersectoral Mobility wages across sectors are either (a) rigidly related because of perfect mobility (b) quite independent because refer to quite separate factors for long run (a) is pretty good search is for intermediate positionZ7(D7(DWalmsley and Winters  Ostandard CGE model - GTAP perfect competition, no externalities modify for TMNPTemporary and Permanent Workers (  HHome Country LFm PLm TM TW PLs LFs^I 2  L        Allocation of Temporaries    The Experiment   quotas increased by 3% of host work force skilled and unskilled separately supplied by labour exporters pro rata to work forces Table 1 gives flows USA: +2.7m unskilled; +2.4m skilled China: -2.4m unskilled; -.5m skilledH*!IJ*!IJ  -Host vs Home Concepts Labour Flow from A to B.  . 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