ࡱ> `b]^_[@ ڄbjbj44 :ViViQ222d$$$8\e\e\e8ef8v(j(j:bjbjbjbjXjjOQQQQQQ$jR(u9$bjbju$$bjbj$bj$bjOO2S$$bjj DD\e}<o.˭Ŀ0R\88$$$$$j6 tzDjjjuu88$Q\e{88\eEconomic environment Overview Since the first review of its trade policy in 1998, Mali has modified its development programme and in 2002 adopted a Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) (ChapterIII(3)(i)), which was revised in early 2003 in order to take into account the impact of the crisis in Cte dIvoire. Mali has also continued with its macroeconomic stabilization and structural reform programme, with the support of a Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) from the IMF, the renewal of which is being sought. The main objectives of its PRSP are to control government finance, support the common monetary policy of the West African Monetary Union (WAMU), and speed up structural reform (cotton subsector and management of government finance for 2003). In 2002, Mali was able to meet two of the first four convergence criteria subject to multilateral monitoring by the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU), but should have met all the criteria in 2003. Economic growth depends above all on trends in the primary sector, which is highly vulnerable to climate variations. Since the first review, an increase in production and exports of gold, which has become Malis major source of export earnings has led to an average rate of economic growth of around 5.2per cent (1998-2002). The Malian authorities recognize, however, that this activity cannot constitute a sustainable basis for economic activity inasmuch as gold resources are not renewable and mining yields only a low level of value added. Meeting the objectives of the PRSP, including average economic growth of 6.7per cent by 2015, will require giving impetus to the rural sector, industry and commercial services. The crisis that broke out in Cte dIvoire in September 2002 underlined the importance of access to ports in the subregion for Malis economy; Mali is a landlocked country and has to assume the extra cost involved in transporting goods. The negative impact of the crisis on economic growth was mitigated, however, by the fact that economic operators were able to diversify channels and also by the fact that performance during the 2003-2004 agricultural season was better than originally forecast; this performance will be included in the figures for 2003. The Malian authorities are counting on growth of 5.6per cent in 2003, with an increase to 6.7per cent in 2004. According to the UNDP, Mali is one of the poorest of the least developed countries (LDCs) and is 172nd out of 175 countries as far as its human development level is concerned. Poverty affected 63.8per cent of the population in 2001. Under the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries initiative (HIPC), in March 2003 it was decided to alleviate Malis external debt. Background Mali covers an area of 1,241,238km2, of which twothirds is in the Saharan region. It has borders with Mauritania and Algeria to the north, Niger to the east, Burkina Faso, Cte dIvoire and Guinea to the south, and Senegal to the west. The River Niger (locally called the Joliba) flows through the south of the country. In 2001, Malis population was estimated to be some 11million, of whom the majority lived in the south of the country, with around 29per cent in urban areas (mainly the capital, Bamako). In 2000, per capita GDP was US$240. Part of the population (between 800,000 and 2million) lives in Cte dIvoire. The rate of demographic growth is relatively high (with an annual birth rate of 3.1per cent). Some 26per cent of the adult population is literate and average life expectancy is 48.4years. Malis nominal gross domestic product (GDP) was estimated by the authorities to be CFAF2,549billion (US$3.9billion) in 2003, of which twothirds can be attributed to the informal sector. According to estimates by the IMF, nominal GDP, excluding the informal sector, was CFAF1,187billion (US$2billion) in 2002. Malis economy chiefly depends on agriculture (particularly cotton and livestock), which accounted for 32per cent of nominal GDP in 2002 (TableI.1), but employs around 70per cent of the working population. Mining has expanded strongly, however, since the first review of trade policy as a result of the increase in gold production (and exports, see below). The share of mining and quarrying in GDP rose from 6per cent in 1998 to 14per cent in 2002. Manufacturing is still little developed (ChapterIV(4)) and industrial production has not increased since the first review. The services sector includes a large percentage of trade-related services and accounts for close to 33per cent of nominal GDP. Table I.1 Basic economic indicators for Mali, 1998-2002 (in percentage of GDP) 19981999200020012002Primary3638353532Agriculture 2122192017Livestock1010111010Fishing and forestry55655Secondary2220222427Mining and quarrying 6671214Manufacturing118868Electricity, gas and water1010111010Construction and public works11222Table I:1 (cont'd)Tertiary3434373533Trade 1213141313Transport and telecommunications55555Banks and insurance11111Non-tradable services98999Other services88877Source: IMF (2004). Recent Economic developments Macroeconomic indicators Mali's authorities estimated the rate of economic growth of GDP in volume terms to be 3.9per cent in 2002 compared with 12.6per cent in 2001 (TableI.2), the latter rate being exceptional and a result of the settlement of the crisis that occurred in the cotton subsector in 2002. The slowdown in economic growth occurred at a time of inflationist pressure with inflation rates of around 5.2per cent in 2001 and 5per cent in 2002. These relatively high inflation rates (the average for the period 1998-2002 was around 2.5per cent) are due to the effects of the crisis in Cte dIvoire on the cost of imported goods and the increase in the price of millet, a basic foodstuff. Table I.2 Economic indicators for Mali, 1998-2002 19981999200020012002(Percentage)Real economyChange in real GDP8.15.7-3.312.03.9- Primary10.97.7-10.411.7-4.4- Secondary11.1-8.84.426.120.0- Tertiary4.85.34.38.71.1(CFAF billions)External economyCurrent transactions-143.6-176.1-226.9-275.9-136.5- Exports, f.o.b.334.8355.4388.1531.2631.4- Imports, f.o.b.-329.3-372.8-421.5-538.4-498.3- Services (net)-159.2-161.3-167.9-198.1-167.2- Current transfers40.045.844.351.158.5Capital account and financial transactions (net)108.3137.1182.6131.1183.2Overall total-22.6-10.127.8-32.996.4Source: IMF (2004). In 2002, trends in economic activity were marked by: (i)poorer performance during the 2002-2003 agricultural season in comparison with 2001-2002; (ii)record production figures for gold (66.1tonnes); (iii)construction and public works activities related to the organization of the African Cup of Nations (ACN); and (iv)a slowdown in trade and transport as a result of the crisis in Cte dIvoire. The growth rate in 2002 was below the average of 5.2per cent over the period 1998-2002, which was marked by strong expansion in the mining sector (TableI.2). As regards the external economy, there was a surplus in the trade balance (on an f.o.b.-f.o.b. basis) in 2002 because of the marked increase in exports (19 per cent) as a result of gold exports and a sharp drop in imports on an f.o.b. basis (7.4per cent), although the overall trade balance (on an f.o.b.-c.i.f. basis) still shows a deficit, which is nevertheless much lower. Over the period 1998-2002, imports increased on average less rapidly than exports and the deficit in the current balance remained at roughly the same level as in 1998. The decrease in global cotton prices played a role in this situation, despite the compensatory effect of expansion of domestic cotton production (ChapterIV(2)(b)), and diversification towards gold (see below). Monetary and exchange policy Institutional arrangements The countries belonging to the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU), including Mali, have common monetary and exchange policies. The WAEMU complements the WAMU by an economic integration component (ChapterII(4)(ii)), and incorporates its provisions, including a common currency administered by the Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO), a specialized and autonomous institution of the WAEMU. Mali, like the other member countries of the WAEMU, accepted ArticleVIII of the Articles of Agreement of the IMF on 1June 1996. The franc of the African Financial Community (CFA) is the WAMUs currency unit. Until 1January 1999, when the euro became the currency of countries belonging to the European Monetary Union, including France, the CFA franc had fixed parity with the French franc. The CFA franc now has fixed parity with the euro: CFAF1,000= 1.52449017. The introduction of the euro did not lead to any substantive changes as far as the arrangements in the franc zone are concerned. The BCEAO is responsible for issuing CFA francs and ensuring their stability. Its responsibilities are set out in its articles of incorporation as follows: to implement the monetary policy guidelines defined by the WAMU Council of Ministers; to transact exchange operations; to hold and administer member countries exchange reserves; and to promote the proper functioning of the Unions system of payments. Consequently, no monetary policy is implemented at the national level. The BCEAO defines its monetary policy in such a way as to maintain the rate of external cover for the currency at a satisfactory level and to sustain economic activities in member countries without inflationary pressure. The BCEAO administers monetary policy in each member country by fixing objectives for the money supply and credit on an annual basis. These take into account the general financing needs of each member countrys economy and the resources needed to meet them, as determined by each national Credit Committee. The BCEAOs articles of incorporation provide a ceiling for advances to national treasuries, which are subject to an interest rate fixed by the BCEAO with a penalty if the ceiling is exceeded. Advances were frozen in each member State at the 31December 2002 levels and then consolidated over 10 years at an interest rate of 3per cent. States are called on to issue public securities on the WAMUs financial market. Maintaining a common monetary policy calls for financial discipline on the part of each country, which retains its own decentralized economic policy. The WAEMU has established a Convergence, Stability, Growth and Solidarity Pact, subject to multilateral monitoring since 2000. According to the latest data from 2002, Mali has been able to satisfy two of the first four convergence criteria and according to the forecast by the WAEMU Commission, should have respected them all in 2003. The time-limit for convergence, planned for the end of 2002, has been postponed until mid-2005 because of the problems encountered by WAEMU member States in meeting the first four criteria. Foreign exchange regulations Foreign exchange transactions in euros between the BCEAO and commercial banks in Mali, as well as exchange transactions by economic operators, are at a fixed rate. Foreign exchange transactions in euros by economic operators may be subject to a commission. In addition, the buying and selling rates for other currencies are determined on the basis of the rate for the euro on the foreign exchange market. Any foreign exchange operation in Mali must be conducted through intermediaries approved (commercial banks) or authorized (exchange bureaux) by the Ministry of Finance. Banks and post offices levy a commission of 0.25per cent on transfers outside the WAEMU and this is handed over to the Treasury. Imports and exports exceeding CFAF5 million must be domiciled with an approved bank. Payments (except for transactions in gold and the issue, advertising and sale of financial instruments) and transfers of capital within the WAEMU are free. The main provisions of the common regulations governing foreign exchange with third countries are the following: - Sums to cover current transaction operations may be freely transferred subject to the submission of supporting documentation; - the obligation to repatriate earnings from exports to countries outside the WAEMU and their conversion into CFA francs; - capital may enter freely from any country; and - outflow of capital to countries outside the WAEMU is subject to verification based on the submission of supporting documentation (attestation and issue of a transfer authorization by the services of the Ministry of the Economy and Finance). Mali allows foreign investors to repatriate capital invested and the profits from their operations, as well as savings on salaries by expatriate staff (ChapterII(3)(e)). Budget policy Since the first review of Mali's trade policy, the government finance situation has deteriorated as regards the percentage of the overall balance in the GDP, with deficit increasing from 2.2per cent in 1998 to 3.6per cent in 2002. This trend is chiefly marked by a decrease in grants recorded in the GDP (3.6per cent of GDP in 2002 compared to 5per cent in 1998), as the overall balance excluding grants remained at around the same level, with a deficit of 7.2per cent in 2002. This stability is due in particular to the efforts made to collect revenue, especially customs duties and taxes (7.6per cent of GDP in 2002) and the royalties paid out by enterprises in the gold sector (1.3per cent in 2002), as well as the relative control of government spending (23.7per cent of GDP). It is expected that there will be a deterioration for 2003 because of the increased expenditure involved in implementing the PRSP, especially the planned recruitment in social services. Mali has recorded an increase in revenue from duties and taxes on international trade from CFAF131.7billion in 1999 to CFAF180.4billion in 2002, which is mainly attributable to the strong increase in imports (28per cent since 1997), despite the liberalization of trade within the WAEMU. In 2002, this revenue was composed as follows: 23.7per cent in the form of customs duties; 1.6per cent as taxes (statistical fee (RS) and community solidarity levy (PCS)); 46.5per cent for the value added tax (VAT) and the tax on the supply of services (TPS); 16.7per cent for the tax on petroleum products; and 5.4per cent for export taxes. In all, 46.3per cent of budgetary revenue (excluding grants) was levied by the customs in 2002, a slight decrease in comparison with 1999. Since the first review, Mali has also enhanced the institutional framework for drawing up, implementing and monitoring the budget by adopting the decree determining the new budgetary nomenclature and the States harmonized accounting plan on 1January 2003, in accordance with the relevant WAEMU regulations, and, in addition, by adopting a manual on government spending procedures. This reform enhances transparency and good governance in government finance, as well as budgetary management as a whole, by combining operating and investment expenditure in a single budget. Trends In Trade Breakdown of trade According to the statistics available (TableI.3), Malis exports are still as little diversified as they were at the time of the first review of trade policy and the share of value added products continues to be modest. With an increase from 40.6per cent in 1998 to 71.8per cent in 2002, gold has made a sizeable contribution to export earnings. This change has mainly occurred to the detriment of cotton (even though the volume exported increased), whose share fell from 44.1per cent in 1998 to 17.7per cent in 2002. The reason is the decline in global cotton prices, which are at their lowest level since 1994. Table I.3 Principal exports by Mali, 1997-2002 Section199719981999200020012002(US$ millions)Total544.2590.5571.0524.8713.6865.3(Percentage)ILive animals and animal products9.48.49.410.18.84.3XITextiles and textile articles48.345.939.731.114.117.9XIVPearls or cultured pearls, gemstones and the like, precious metals, costume jewellery, coins36.438.242.151.767.671.8Other5.97.58.87.19.56.0Source: Malian authorities. It is difficult to identify the destination of Malis exports because of the countrys landlocked situation, which makes it necessary to transit through ports in the region. According to the information available from importing countries, however, exports to America (mainly Mexico) have gradually increased while those to Europe and Asia have decreased, which could be indicative of diversification since the first review (TableI.4). The composition of imports appears to have changed little and fuel, chemicals, and transport machinery and equipment still occupy first place (TableI.5). The origin of these imports is essentially still the same, with Cte dIvoire and France at the top (TableI.6). Trade between Mali and Cte dIvoire could, however, see changes if the crisis in Cte dIvoire persists. Table I.4 Destination of Malis exports, 1997-2002 (Percentage) 1998199920002001America17.619.826.935.7Europe39.534.134.025.4 European Union38.331.330.121.9 - Italy21.012.57.55.6 - France1.82.05.15.1Asia and Middle East30.034.223.325.0Africa12.07.910.311.8 Sub-Saharan Africa6.34.47.29.1 - Ghana0.00.01.24.7Note: Statistics in this table have been drawn up on the basis of imports of Malian origin into other countries. Source: UNSD Comtrade database. Table I.5 Principal imports by Mali, 1997-2002 Section199719981999200020012002(US$ millions)Total682.6811.7823.3 805.5989.0927.9(Percentage) IIPlant products4.88.16.44.33.96.4IVFood industry products; beverages, alcohol and vinegar; tobacco and manufactured tobacco substitutes7.18.57.66.78.09.4VMineral products22.218.217.125.424.423.3VIProducts of the chemical or related industries15.215.214.411.810.516.5VIIPlastics and articles of plastic; rubber and articles of rubber2.23.33.43.03.63.8XVBase metals and articles of base metal6.78.59.17.67.36.3XVIMachinery and appliances, electrical equipment17.516.218.019.422.514.4XVIITransport equipment12.29.612.511.99.19.7Other12.112.411.59.910.710.2Source: Malian authorities. Table I.6 Origin of Malis imports, 1997-2002 (Percentage) 19981999200020012002America9.68.89.011.39.6United States5.25.94.68.05.4Europe35.839.444.235.038.1European Union32.937.141.032.336.6- France20.921.223.617.518.7- Belgium- Luxembourg3.14.24.23.33.9Asia and Middle East13.313.913.412.711.6 China3.24.23.94.52.7 Japan6.34.34.44.14.1Africa41.237.031.439.240.1 Sub-Saharan Africa38.934.428.435.235.1- Cte dIvoire29.126.522.124.823.1- Senegal6.06.74.76.36.4Source: Malian authorities. Outlook According to the Malian authorities, performance during the 2003-2004 agricultural season has been better than expected (growth of 22per cent in cereal production, for example), and consequently the growth rate for Malis economy as a whole was around 5.6per cent in 2003. This rate is much higher than the rate expected in the light of the crisis in Cte dIvoire and offsets the decline in gold production, which fell from its record level of 64tonnes in 2002 to 52tonnes in 2003. Because of the abundant supply of the populations basic foodstuffs, slight deflation (-0.8per cent) was noted. As regards the external economy, exports fell by 15.5per cent between 2002 and 2003 according to the WAEMU Commission. This decrease is mainly due to the exceptional level of gold exports in 2002, while imports continued to increase. Consequently, the trade surplus (on an f.o.b.-f.o.b. basis) of CFAF141billion (US$235million) recorded in 2002 is also an exceptional figure. For 2004, Mali's authorities are hoping for an economic growth rate of 6.7per cent. Such an increase could be achieved if there is greater rainfall and projects to develop agriculture go ahead, which would enable cotton and cereal production to improve their performance during the period. On the other hand, the authorities expect gold production to decrease from 51tonnes in 2003 to 46.8tonnes in 2004. Industry will be sustained by expansion in cotton production and, consequently, ginning of seed cotton. Construction and public works (for example, the building of roads, schools) will also be a focus for growth in the secondary sector. Energy production could be revitalized as a result of the reform in the sector.  The main sources consulted when preparing this chapter were the WAEMU Commission (2003); IMF (2003a); IMF (2004).  Achievement of the PRSPs objectives is built around three priority axes: institutional development and enhancement of governance and participation by the private sector; human development and better access to basic social services; development of the infrastructure and support for production sectors (Government of Mali (2002)).  Mali Letter of Intent, Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies, and Technical Memorandum of Understanding", 13 February 2003 [on line]. Available at http://www.imf.org [7November2003].  According to information provided by the Malian authorities, 72per cent of imports and 79per cent of exports in volume terms went through Abidjan in 2001; these figures fell to 15per cent and 32per cent respectively in 2003.  UNDP (2003).  IMF Press Release No. 03/29. The nominal value of the reduction is US$675million.  IMF (2004).  According to a study provided by the authorities on Lemploi, le chmage et les conditions dactivit dans la ville de Bamako, the informal sector absorbs around 80per cent of the working population living in Bamako, while the formal private sector employs 10per cent of the working population and the public sector 10per cent.  As of 2002, the Malian authorities revised the way in which the national accounts are compiled on the basis of recommendations from the WAEMU Commission so as to allow comparisons among member States. The main consequence of this revision has been to attribute the performance in the agricultural sector (n/n+1) to the calendar year n, which was previously attributed to the year n+1.  In 2002, imports on a c.i.f. basis amounted to CFAF646.7billion (US$1,078million), while imports on an f.o.b. basis amounted to CFAF498billion (US$830million), the difference between the two figures mainly being the result of transport costs.  The WAEMU Treaty was signed on 11 January 1994 by Benin, Burkina Faso, Cte dIvoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal and Togo; Guinea-Bissau acceded to the Treaty on 1 January 1997.  Monetary cooperation among member countries of the WAMU, created in 1962 with a new Treaty signed in 1973, and France dates back to the colonial era. The BCEAO is the result of a monetary cooperation agreement signed with France in 1972 and supplemented by the transactions account agreement of 1973.  When the CFA franc was devalued by 50per cent in 1994, the fixed rate became CFAF1,000= F10.  The same parity applies to the CFA (Central African Financial Cooperation) franc, which is the currency of the member countries of the Central African Economic and Monetary Union (CEMAC), whose structure is similar to that of the WAEMU.  Decision of the Council of the European Union of 23 November 1998 concerning exchange matters relating to the CFA franc and the Comorian franc (98/683/EC).  Additional Act No. 4/99.  WAEMU Commission (2003a). IMF (2003b).  According to the provisions of Article 6 of Regulation No. 09/98/CM/UEMOA on financial relations among member States of the WAEMU, investment, loans, deposits and in general all capital movements among member States of the WAEMU are free and are not subject to restrictions, pursuant to Articles 76, paragraph(d), 96 and 97 of the WAEMU Treaty and Article4 of the WAMU Treaty.  Directives Nos.5/97/CM/UEMOA, 6/97/CM/UEMOA, 4/98/CM/UEMOA, 5/98/CM/UEMOA and 6/98/CM/UEMOA, as amended.  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IMF (2003a); IMF (2004). 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