ࡱ>  @ bjbjFF :^,,̡ H|dtdtdt8t\u< jRj@@:zzzU$+ RRRRRRRSR&V*RUURzz$R*zz R Rn  z4 `(Qdtu(,):R0jR PW9TPW@ PW ,_rђ\-RR$.Economic environment Overview Since the last Review of Jamaica, in 1998, its economy has had very modest growth despite reform efforts, a high measured rate of investment, a high literacy rate, and poverty levels below the average of comparable countries in the CARICOM and in Central America. Employment growth was sluggish between the mid 1990s and 2002, and productivity growth was negative. GDP growth has been affected by the financial crisis of the mid 1990s and subsequent policy effects, an appreciating real exchange rate, rising real wages, which reduced international competitiveness, but especially by the increasing burden of the public debt. The growing debt is a main contributor to the persistently large overall fiscal deficit, and hence forces the Central Government to post relatively high primary surpluses; this has increased pressure for tax increases. The growing weight of public debt interest payments constrains the policy choices of the authorities, and creates an anti-growth bias, due to the need to maintain relatively high real interest rates. Unless the debt problem is addressed, there will be strains on the internal and external balances which, in turn, will impact on trade policy. Imports have increased but Jamaica's exports of goods have declined in recent years; although exports of primary products have progressed, manufactured goods contracted dramatically between 1998 and 2002. This was due mainly to a sharp decline in apparel exports to the U.S. market despite enhanced access under the CBTPA. A possible explanation may be the loss of Jamaica's external competitiveness vis vis other countries in the Caribbean and Central American region, affected in past years by an appreciating real exchange rate. Although this has been partly corrected, particularly since 2000, further measures are likely to be necessary, for example, through wage moderation. The recent understanding between the unions and the Government is a step in this direction. Addressing Jamaica's modest economic growth would seem to require an integrated approach, of which trade policy is a component. In this context, certain trade policies may need re-examination, for example, tax and customs tariff exemptions (ChapterIII(3)(2)(viii), (3)(iv) and (4)(ii)), which are costly in terms of forgone tax revenue, an important consideration given the need to reduce the fiscal deficit. Macroeconomic Developments Economic structure and reform Since Jamaica's last Review, the economy has continued to shift away from primary activities, in particular agriculture, and from manufacturing, both of which have lost share of GDP. Services have become, by far, the main economic activity and the main earner of foreign exchange. Tourism generates as much foreign exchange as all exports of goods combined and due to its importance and linkages to other activities has a strong multiplier effect on the domestic economy. After Jamaica completed its last IMF structural adjustment programme in 1996, efforts continued to stabilize the economy; the reduction in inflation and the correction of the fiscal imbalance became the main economic policy goals of the 1996 National Industrial Policy (NIP). Although inflation has fallen, growth has remained weak and overall productivity has actually declined. Problems like high crime and relatively high wage costs may be partly behind the low growth rates. Other factors that could explain low growth include high investment and production costs, which have been partly fostered by a combination of tight monetary policy and a large fiscal deficit. Poor education outcomes and governance problems may have also contributed to poor productivity and growth performance. For example, although school enrolment for 6 to 14 year olds is near universal, about 30-40% of primary school leavers are functionally illiterate. More importantly, Jamaica had a negative score in four of the World Bank's six governance indicators for 2002: political stability, government effectiveness, the rule of law, and corruption. Production and employment The Jamaican economy entered a period of stagnation in the 1990s, which led to a recession in 1997 and 1998. Growth was affected during this period by the large financial crisis and by the implementation of stricter monetary policy, reflected in higher interest rates, and by the loss of competitiveness partly attributed to the real exchange rate appreciation. Since 1999 growth has resumed, but at very low rates (Table I.1). Between 1998 and 2002, real annual GDP growth averaged just 0.6%, with growth peaking in 2001 at 1.5%. Growth is estimated to have increased to 2.3% in 2003. The economic slowdown in the United States and the 11 September 2001 attacks have contributed to sluggish growth in tourism and may have affected exports. The economy, however, received a boost from lower interest rates between 2000 and 2002. The modest rates of growth recorded in recent years may also, in part, reflect statistical problems. A recent World Bank study shows that GDP may be underestimated in Jamaica because output estimates in the services sector, particularly in tourism, may not be taking account of incomes booked offshore; also, the imputed income from housing would appear to be too low, and imputed banking services, which reflect negatively in the accounts, too large. An indicator that GDP may be underestimated is the decline in poverty. However, the study concludes that, even adjusting for a possible underestimate, the resulting growth rates would still be low. Domestic demand declined between 1998 and 2000, reflecting tighter macroeconomic policies to lower inflation and the fiscal deficit. Domestic demand has expanded since 2001, supported by remittances from abroad. Consumer spending accounts for some 70% of GDP, a relatively large share, and imported goods account for a considerable part of this spending. In the late 1990s and up to 2002, consumption of imported goods and services grew faster than domestically produced goods (TableI.1). The real effective appreciation of the Jamaican dollar (some 30% between 1990 and 2002) contributed to this expenditure-switching effect, which, combined with relatively morose exports, led to a worsening of the traditionally negative contribution of net exports to GDP growth. Investment growth slowed down in the 1990s, discouraged by high interest rates and by low growth and profit prospects. Since 2000, however, investment has recovered and its share of GDP has increased. The World Bank pointed out in a recent study that high investment combined with slow growth is likely to reflect capital underutilization (e.g. in export zones) and the costs of crime (e.g. by stopping multiple shift operations). Also, although investment remains high in housing, and in some rapidly growing sectors like communications, its contribution to output is difficult to measure. In some cases, investment may have been attracted by the concession of incentives (Chapter III(4)(ii)), which may have led to over-investment in certain areas. The savings/GDP ratio has remained well below the investment/GDP ratio during the period under review. This gap is reflected in the structural deficit of the current account of the balance-of-payments. Table I.1 Basic economic indicators, 1998-03 199819992000200120022003I. GDPCurrent GDP (J$ million)282.2 300.9 338.7372.2407.7470.5Current GDP (US$ billion)7.77.77.98.18.48.1Per capita GDP (US$)2,9962,9763,0223,0943,2063,077Real GDP, growth rate (%)-1.20.90.81.51.12.3Structure of GDP (% of current GDP at factor cost, including imputed bank service charges)Agriculture, hunting, forestry and fishing7.87.36.76.55.95.6Mining and quarrying4.34.34.44.24.14.6Manufacturing13.914.013.713.813.413.5Electricity and water3.13.23.63.63.63.9Construction9.99.89.810.110.010.1Distributive trade (incl. restaurants and hotels)21.521.221.020.720.620.3Transport, storage and communications11.411.811.612.413.413.0Financial and insurance services7.18.28.26.75.88.1Real estate and business services6.16.36.16.26.46.2Government services12.612.212.612.513.012.5Miscellaneous services7.47.77.57.16.97.2Household and private non-profit institutions0.50.60.60.60.60.5Breakdown of GDP by type of expenditure (% of current GDP)Total consumption87.186.784.587.187.9..Private69.871.168.671.169.6..Government17.315.615.916.018.3..Gross fixed capital formation26.725.127.631.034.3..Exports of goods and services48.547.347.844.138.5..Imports of goods and services58.458.463.364.857.5..Gross national savings20.620.121.121.917.5..Net national savings13.012.413.410.79.1..Compensation of employees48.349.248.047.246.9..II. Memo itemsPopulation (million)2.62.62.62.62.6Labour force (million)1.11.11.11.11.11.1Unemployment rate15.516.015.614.815.412.8Consumer price index (increase, period average)8.66.08.27.07.110.3Net international reserves (US$ million)582.0450.2969.51,840.71,597.01,165.0 .. Not available. Note: The fiscal year runs April-March. Source: Bank of Jamaica online information. Available at: http://www.boj.org; information provided by the Statistical Institute of Jamaica; and Planning Institute of Jamaica, Economic Survey of Jamaica (2002 and 2003). The unemployment rate remains high, at some 15%. Starting in the 1990s, and despite high unemployment, real wages have risen, accompanied by declining and even negative productivity growth. Pushed in part by strong trade union pressure, nominal earnings rose by 107% between 1995 and 2000, a real increase of some 35%. At the same time, reflecting the low GDP but high capital investment growth, total factor productivity has been declining. World Bank estimates point to an average 3% annual decline in total factor productivity over 1991-2000, of which 1.9percentage points correspond to the negative contribution of capital growth, and 1.4 percentage points to the negative contribution of employment growth, only partially offset by a 0.3 percentage point contribution of GDP growth. Fiscal policy The fiscal situation deteriorated in the second half of the 1990s, fed by the crisis in the financial sector and strong wage and salary increases to address the decline in real income due to the inflationary spiral of the 1990s. From 1998 to 2001, the Central Government deficit declined helped by increasing revenue and falling non-debt expenditure. This trend was reversed after 2001, largely due to payments on debt assumed from the Financial Sector Adjustment Company (FINSAC) as a consequence of the financial institutions rescue programme, following the financial crisis of the mid 1990s, and a rising wage bill. The share of public sector wages in GDP climbed to 13% in 2002/03, reflecting a general public sector wage increase in 2002. The Central Government's primary balance has shown a surplus throughout the period under review, but this surplus has been insufficient to cover the increasing debt interest payments, which amounted to 15.7% of GDP in 2002/03 (Table I.2). Debt servicing has accounted for over two thirds of the budget in recent years. In an attempt to redress the financial sector crisis, address the heavy public sector debt burden and restore economic growth, the Jamaican authorities undertook an IMF Staff-Monitored Program (SMP) in 2000/01 and 2001/02. Initially, the SMP resulted in an improved fiscal balance, with the central government deficit falling below 1% of GDP, but no significant progress was achieved in lowering the debt-to-GDP ratio (Table I.1). The fiscal balance deteriorated again, however in 2001/02, as current expenditure increased significantly and tax revenues rose only moderately. Faced with this deteriorating situation, the authorities undertook a new SMP for 2002/03, with the aim of continuing fiscal consolidation, but this SMP did not achieve its goals. Fiscal targets were missed by a wide margin: the Central Government posted a deficit equivalent to 8% of GDP, while the target was 4.4%. This was due mainly to higher interest costs, expenditure overruns in wages, and other expenditures. Taxes were increased, and some of the burden fell on imports; the share of taxes on imports increased from 6.5% of GDP in 2001/02, to 7.2% in 2002/03. There was a revision of the general consumption tax, through the General Consumption Tax (Amendment) Act 2003 which, among other things, broadened its scope to include imports of services and reduced the range of zero-rated or exempted items. The 2003/04 budget included an overall central government deficit target of 5-6% of GDP, to be achieved primarily by revenue increases. The overall public sector deficit was programmed to decline to around 8% of GDP. The central government deficit was in line with the target, with the Ministry of Finance reporting that it reached 5.6% of GDP, mainly due to a 27.7% increase in revenues with respect to 2002/03. Central government expenditure, on the other hand, exceeded the budget by some 4.8% as a result of higher than programmed spending on interest payments and wages and salaries. Table I.2 Financial accounts of the Central Government, FY 1998-03 (Percentage of GDP) 1997/981998/991999/002000/012001/022002/03Revenue25.426.629.830.027.629.6 Tax23.725.026.926.725.026.4 Foreign trade......5.87.27.9 Imports......5.26.57.2 Non-tax revenue1.41.32.72.82.12.9 External transfers (including HIPC grants)0.30.20.30.50.50.2Expenditure33.033.534.031.033.337.6Current expenditure28.030.830.928.330.635.6 Wages and salaries11.111.510.510.511.513.0 Interest payments9.412.413.812.813.715.7 Transfers and others7.56.96.65.05.46.9Capital expenditure5.02.73.02.82.72.0Central government primary balance (excluding interest payments)1.85.59.611.88.07.7Central government balance-7.6-6.9-4.2-0.9-5.7-8.0 FINSAC payments-2.1-5.2-4.4-4.60.00.0 Adjusted central government balance-9.7-12.3-8.6-5.5-5.7-8.0 Rest of public sector balance-1.6-4.0-3.0-4.7-1.1-1.3 Public sector balance-9.2-10.9-7.2-5.6-6.8-9.3External financing1.1-0.8-1.23.67.0-3.3Internal financing8.211.78.42.0-0.112.6Memo itemsTotal external debt (as a percentage of GDP)44.042.842.947.751.856.3Total debt (as a percentage of GDP))82.091.399.3109.8130.9143.9 .. Not available. Note: There may be slight differences in the totals due to rounding off. Fiscal years go from 1 April to 31 March. Source: Information provided by the Ministry of Finance. In February 2004, the Government and the Jamaica Confederation of Trade Unions (JCTU) signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) agreeing to a two-year policy of wage restraint, from 1 April 2004 to 31 March 2006. In the MOU the parties acknowledge that Jamaica faces an unsustainable situation due to the conjunction of a high debt to GDP ratio; a large fiscal deficit; low economic growth; and low employment creation. The MOU calls for no increases during the period covered, and a maximum wage bill increase of 3% for outstanding settlement prior to April 2004. In the context of the reform of public finances, certain trade policies may need re-examination, for example, tax and customs tariffs exemptions (Chapter III(2)(viii), (3)(iv) and (4)(ii)) which could be costly in terms of forgone tax revenue. This is an important consideration, given the need to reduce the fiscal deficit. For example, while the average tariff rate in 2003 was 8.6%, customs duty revenue collection was about 4.6% of total imports. The 4% gap is equivalent to some 1.6% of GDP. The public debt ratio increased in FY 2002/03 to over 140% of GDP. This reflects both the depreciation of the Jamaican dollar, which increased the value of foreign external debt, and the assumption of loans from public entities. The brunt of the increase has been in domestic debt, which almost tripled between 1998 and 2002 as a result of the reliance on the issuance of debt instruments known as local registered stocks (LRSs) to cover financial needs and to rehabilitate the financial sector. Domestic debt increased from 37% of GDP in 1997 to almost 90% in 2002. Monetary and exchange rate policy The Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) is in charge of monetary policy, under the authority of the Minister of Finance, who appoints the Governor and several members of its Board of Directors. The BOJ's Governor is the ultimate authority with respect to monetary policy. The BOJ is also responsible for supervision of the banking system and of specified financial institutions (ChapterIV(6)(ii)). Under the Bank of Jamaica Act (1960), monetary policy is aimed at regulating the growth of money and credit in line with the resources expected to finance economic activity and generate employment, without undermining the conditions of price stability. In practice, however, the BOJ has shifted its policy focus since 1996 to the alignment of domestic inflation with that of Jamaica's major trading partners to help ensure relative exchange rate stability, aimed at providing an anchor for long-term monetary stability. The BOJ's monetary policy has thus made price stability its main goal, while facilitating sustainable growth in real output and generating employment have become subsidiary targets. To pursue its price stability objective, the BOJ uses as operating targets the monetary base and interest rates, while its intermediate targets are the exchange rate and the money supply. The BOJ relies mainly on open market operations and management of reserve requirements as operational tools. Open market operations are the main monetary policy instrument. The BOJ influences these operations through determination of and changes in the reverse repurchase (repo) rate; actions in this respect have focused in recent years on longer-term rates (365-day repo). Reserve requirements are also used actively as a direct instrument to control liquidity. The BOJ also controls liquidity through interventions in the foreign exchange market. A target for inflation is set annually by the BOJ and approved by the Minister of Finance. This target is incorporated in a financial programme, which outlines and defines the main economic variables that are consistent with the inflation target. Annual targets for the money supply and net international reserves are also determined; from the money supply target, base money targets are then derived making assumptions with respect to the behaviour of the money multiplier. The money supply target is based on estimated nominal GDP growth for the year, with seasonal patterns imposed on a quarterly basis. The base money target is formulated based on the assumption of the cash reserve ratio and currency/deposits ratio, which also exhibit a seasonal pattern. The BOJ's objectives for 2002/03 were to reduce inflation to a range of 6-7%, in the context of expected GDP growth in the range of 2-4% and base money growth of 8-10% . After tightening the monetary stance in the mid 1990s, the authorities relaxed monetary policy somewhat. This monetary easing has been gradual, and accompanied, until 2003, by inflation at single-digit levels. Both active and passive interest rates declined by about a third between 1998 and 2003 (Table I.3), to about 25.6% (average lending rate) and 8.4% (average savings rate). As a consequence, the spread between active and passive rates also shrunk by about a third, but remained high, at some 17.2% in 2003. This high spread reflects the persistence of a relatively high risk factor, despite tighter supervision of financial institutions (ChapterIV(6)(ii)). It may also indicate a relative lack of competition among financial institutions and an insufficient degree of financial intermediation. In this respect, for example, banks have maintained liquidity ratios well above the legal reserve requirements (Table I.3). Table I.3 Main monetary indicators, 1998-03 (Annual rates of change) 199819992000200120022003Money and creditM1 money supply5.429.5-2.418.913.67.3Broad money supply M2a7.217.310.69.813.011.2Liabilities to private sector5.715.520.131.06.713.1Domestic credit34.117.23.812.111.332.4Interest ratesAverage savings rate (end of period)12.1311.389.869.088.968.43Average lending rate (end of period)38.8033.9231.6726.7925.0425.60Interest rate spread (end of period)26.6722.5421.8117.6916.0817.17Treasury bill rate, 6 months (end of period)21.3118.6818.3215.7015.6819.86Reverse repurchase 30 day (repo) rate (end of period)22.0018.3516.4514.2512.9515.00Legal reserve requirementsCash reserve requirement for commercial banks211613999Liquidity requirement for commercial banks433431282323Liquidity ratio actually maintained55.848.345.643.737.933.2InflationConsumer price index (period average % change)8.66.08.27.07.110.3Consumer price index (end-of-period % change)7.96.86.18.87.314.1Exchange rateExchange rate (J$ per US$ period average)36.6839.3343.3246.0948.7358.24Real effective exchange rate (index; 1990=100)a138.8132.2127.7132.2127.7112.1 a An increase in the index means real appreciation. Source: Bank of Jamaica (2003, 2004b), online information. Available at: http://www.boj.org. The effectiveness of monetary policy could potentially be enhanced by legislation concerning BOJ independence. In 2003, the BOJ intervened in the market, through the purchase of securities, to smooth the potential monetary impulses from financing the fiscal gap. Although the BOJ sought to offset the inflationary impact of this non-programmed monetary injection and of the effect of its intervention in the foreign exchange market, base money expanded by twice its 12% annual target in the last quarter of 2003, thus contributing to two-digit inflation rates in 2003. The BOJ, in its stabilization efforts, also increased its reverse repurchase rates, especially for instruments with longer maturities. Pressure eased in late 2003 and rates declined somewhat. However, repo rates remain at relatively high levels (Table I.3), and above those of similar countries. Moreover, higher repo rates pushed up Treasury bill rates, resulting in larger fiscal deficits and higher public debt, which in turn put further pressure on Treasury bill rates. Foreign exchange transactions are conducted through authorized dealers, which may be commercial banks or cambios and bureaux de change, and are required to resell 5% of their total foreign exchange purchases to the BOJ. Exchange controls were eliminated in September 1991. Jamaica's exchange rate system is a managed float, where the BOJ intervenes to prevent precipitous changes in the value of the Jamaican dollar. The BOJ has also sought to limit the rate of depreciation of the Jamaican dollar because its studies have shown that excessive depreciation triggers inflationary expectations. The BOJ does this by selling foreign exchange to the market to augment U.S. dollar liquidity, thereby slowing the rate of depreciation brought about by excess demand pressures. In its 2004 Article IV Consultations report, the IMF noted that the use of the exchange rate as an anchor for inflation expectations, while succeeding in keeping inflation low, has done so at the cost of a widening current account deficit and an overall decline in competitiveness, and that greater exchange rate flexibility would better safeguard competitiveness and respond to shocks. After appreciating in real effective terms during most of the 1990s and hence suffering an erosion of competitiveness, the Jamaican dollar has depreciated since 2001. The improvement in external competitiveness has been aided by the depreciation of the U.S. dollar vis--vis third currencies, and was strongest in 2003, when the BOJ calculates that the J$ experienced a real effective depreciation of 12.2%. Prices The use of tight monetary policy in the mid and late 1990s resulted in a significant reduction in inflation, which declined from two-digits to an annual average of 6% in 1999. In 2003, the combination of wage increases in the public sector, a depreciating exchange rate, the adjustment in GCT rates, the increase in some administered prices, and higher commodity and oil prices had pushed the consumer price index (CPI) up to 14.1% by December, largely overshooting the BOJ's 6-7% target. Core inflation, which excluded the more volatile components of the CPI, also increased in 2003, to 8.1%, up from 3.6% in 2002. Inflation moderated somewhat in the first half of 2004, but continued to exceed BOJ expectations. Increases in commodity prices, upward adjustments in some administered prices, in particular a 26% increase in water prices, and exchange rate depreciation continued to provide inflationary impulses. Prices were also affected by the 11% national minimum wage increase effective in November 2003. Balance of payments After a slight improvement in 1998 and 1999, the current account deficit reached 13.3% of GDP in 2002 (Table I.4); a similar level is estimated for 2003. This result has been mainly caused by higher levels of debt servicing and a deterioration in the trade balance, affected by higher oil prices and weaker export earnings. The latter are due mainly to depressed alumina prices and a decline in garment exports. Jamaica's current account deficit is structural, reflecting excess consumption and investment with respect to domestic savings. The trade deficit is traditionally large. Jamaica has a narrow export base comprising mainly alumina/bauxite and some non-traditional exports, and a strong dependence on imported raw materials, oil, and capital goods. The correlation between imports and exports is high. Imports of goods and services represent nearly 60% of GDP, heavily outweighing exports, which represent less than 40%; they have also been expanding faster than exports. Imports of goods are more than twice the value of exports. Table I.4 Balance of payments, 1998-03 (US$ million, unless otherwise indicated) 199819992000200120022003Current account balance (% of GDP)-4.3-2.8-4.7-9.4-13.3-12.3Current account balance-331.2-215.1-367.2-757.5-1,118.2-1,001.6 Merchandise trade balance-1,130.5-1,185.2-1,441.0-1,618.1-1,870.3-1,949.8 Exports f.o.b.1,613.41,500.31,562.91,454.41,309.21,356.5 Imports f.o.b.-2,743.9-2,685.6-3,003.9-3,072.5-3,179.5-3,306.3 Services balance476.8655.3602.9383.1270.7446.5 Transportation-278.4-233.6-256.6-256.2-245.6-202.3 Foreign travel998.91,052.31,123.61,026.2950.61,075.3 Other services-243.7-163.4-264.1-386.9-434.3-426.5 Balance on goods and services-653.7-529.9-838.1-1,235.0-1,599.6-1,503.3 Income balance-308.1-332.5-349.9-437.8-605.5-633.3 Transfers (net)630.6647.3820.8915.61,086.91,135.0 Private587.4601.5672.9795.9979.31,050.3 Official43.245.8147.9119.7107.684.7Capital and financial account331.2215.1367.2757.51,118.21,001.6 Capital account balance15.513.12.2-23.6-16.9-17.1 Capital transfers15.513.12.2-23.6-16.9-17.1 Official 4.24.115.62.20.20.1 Private11.39.0-13.4-25.8-17.1-17.2 Financial account315.7202.0365.0780.81,135.11,018.7 Official investment-41.3-331.4383.7653.477.1-363.8 Private investment, net (including errors and omissions)276.9443.3543.2990.3801.61,682.4Change in foreign exchange reserves (net)-41.5131.8-519.3-871.2243.7432.1Net international reserves582.0450.2969.51,840.81,597.11,165.0Gross official reserves706.5551.81,048.81,903.31,643.11,196.3Gross official reserves in weeks of goods imports11.910.618.333.227.918.3External debt3,306.43,024.13,375.34,146.04,347.54,192.1External debt/GDP (%)43.039.543.251.552.0..Debt service ratio/exports of goods and services15.414.610.513.418.0..Exchange rate (J$ per US$ period average)36.739.343.346.248.758.2 .. Not available. Note: A minus sign indicates a gain in reserves. Source: Bank of Jamaica (2004a and 2002); and International Monetary Fund (2003, 2004a, and 2004b). The current account deficit in 2002 totalled US$1 billion, more than 2.5 times the 2000 level; in the 2000-02 period, the current account deficit widened by about 4 percentage points of GDP per year, before seemingly stabilizing in 2003. Exports of services exceed those of goods. Tourism is the main earner of foreign exchange: net inflows from foreign travel totalled US$951 million in 2002. Most other services subsectors post a deficit (see blow). The income balance is traditionally in deficit, which, after falling during the 1990s, has been increasing since 2000. Profit remittances of foreign companies account for a substantial part of the deficit; interest payments on central government foreign debt also contribute to the deficit. An important source of investment income comprises net inflows of the earnings of Jamaicans working abroad, primarily associated with higher receipts from the U.S. Hospitality Programme. Net current transfers, predominantly private remittances are, after tourism, Jamaica's most important source of foreign exchange. Net inflows from current transfers accounted for some 13% of GDP in 2002. Some 42% of transfers were through financial institutions and 51% through specialized remittance companies. The increasing current account deficit was partly financed with net international reserves in 2002 and 2003. The capital and financial account recorded a surplus of US$1.12 billion in 2002 (US$717 million in the first three quarters of 2003), of which some US$820 million (US$657.6million in 2003) were private investments. Gross investment inflows to the Government declined considerably in 2002, and net outflows were posted in 2003. This reflects the retreat of the Jamaican Government from international financial markets as financial conditions worsened, and the resort to domestic debt to finance the fiscal deficit. Trade and Investment Flows Developments in merchandise trade Between 1998 and 2002, total merchandise trade grew at an annual rate of 1.9%, but the merchandise trade deficit increased by almost two thirds. This resulted from an annual average decline in exports of 4.0%, to total US$1.1 billion, while imports (c.i.f basis), representing more than three times the level of exports in 2002, increased by an annual average of 4.1%, to total US$3.57billion. The contraction of exports is due mainly to a considerable decline of exports of manufactured goods, despite enhanced preferential access to the United States, Jamaica's main export market. Exports expanded somewhat (by 4.4%) in the first eight months of 2003 over the same period the previous year; but this was due mainly to an increase in primary product exports. (a) Composition of trade The distribution of exports changed considerably over the 1998-02 period, as the share of manufactured goods declined sharply, increasing Jamaica's dependence on exports of primary products in 2002. The share of these products in total exports has increased by some 14 percentage points since 1998, reaching 90% of total exports in 2002 (Table AI.1). Exports of manufactures suffered a substantial reduction; their share of total exports declined from almost 24% in 1998 to less than 10% in 2002; in value terms, exports of manufactured goods declined from over US$300 million in 1998 to about US$110 million in 2002. This result reflects mainly the strong decline in the share of apparel exports between 1998 and 2002, from more than 15% of total exports to less than 2%; this substantial fall could not be fully compensated by the increasing share of chemicals exports. In 2002 alone, exports of apparel contracted by US$69.4 million, or 78.2%; the BOJ reports that this was due to the scaling down or withdrawal from the sector of local operators. The scaling down of the apparel industry has also affected free-zone exports. Export earnings within the free zones in 2002 totalled US$162.7 million, US$33.2 million below the earnings of the industry in 2001, and considerably below the US$270.1 million posted in 1998. This was primarily due to the closure of a major apparel factory. The BOJ notes that exports from free-trade zones are affected by the relocation of companies to lower cost countries. Manufactures remained the main import category over the 1998-02 period, accounting for some two thirds of imports in 2002 (Chart I.1); machinery and transport equipment accounted for almost 30% of total imports. Within this sub-category, office machines and telecommunication equipment grew at an annual rate of more than 26% to reach almost 10% of total imports (Table AI.2). Imports of clothing declined, while, reflecting higher prices, import of fuels increased significantly almost doubling their share in total imports.  Direction of trade The United States continues to be Jamaica's main export market, though its share in total exports (excluding free-trade zones) declined sharply, from almost 40% in 1998 to some 28% in 2002 (Table AI.3). As a result, although exports to Canada and other countries in the Western Hemisphere increased, exports to the Americas as a whole declined during the period under review, to some 50% in 2002, compared to 57% four years earlier (Chart I.2). Europe's share remained at some 40%, the decline of Eastern Europe being compensated by an increasing share of exports to EFTA countries and to members of the European Union. The share of Asia increased from 2.4% in 1998 to 6.5% in 2002, and China became the major market of that region, absorbing 4% of Jamaican exports in 2002. Jamaica's import structure remained stable over the 1998-02 period, with the Americas, Europe, and Asia accounting for around 74%, 12% and almost 11% of total imports, respectively. The main changes appeared within the Americas region, where imports from the United States lost market share while imports from other countries of the region increased. Although the United States remains Jamaica's principal supplier, its share declined from 51% to 44%, while other countries in the Americas increased their share by some 8 percentage points between 1998 and 2002, to reach 27%. Within this region, Trinidad and Tobago, Venezuela, and Mexico were the main suppliers (TableAI.4). This shift in the origin of imports reflects to a large extent the increase in the petroleum and petroleum products import bill, since these three countries are major oil suppliers to Jamaica. Trade with CARICOM partners remains small. Jamaica's main trading partner in the region is, by far, Trinidad and Tobago, followed by Barbados and Guyana. Jamaica runs a sizeable trade deficit with CARICOM (over US$400 million in 2002). The largest deficit is with Trinidad and Tobago, on account of Jamaica's large petroleum product imports from this country.  Trade in services Jamaica runs a traditional surplus in services, but this has been declining since 2000, as exports have grown less rapidly than imports. In 2002, exports of services (receipts) totalled US$1.92 billion, while imports (payments) were US$1.65 billion (Table I.5). Net earnings from services fell with a decline in net earnings from travel and an expansion of net payments for other services. Table I.5 Trade in services, 1998-02 (US$ million) RPRPRPRPRP19981999200020012002Total1,770.41,293.61,978.41,323.02,025.71,422.51,897.01,513.91,919.61,648.5Transportation276.0554.4300.3533.9328.6585.2350.5606.7368.7614.3Travel1,196.9198.01279.6227.21,332.6208.71,232.2206.01,209.4258.4Insurance services5.971.76.456.212.187.211.994.115.4118.4Communication services184.540.0275.042.4209.431.8164.750.1177.8103.9Financial services9.23.211.33.512.618.415.829.722.417.7Computer & information services37.05.040.05.940.47.136.613.834.111.6Royalties & license fees6.630.06.240.56.441.05.938.36.132.1Other business services16.2346.320.7365.636.4396.840.7427.245.2436.4Personal, cultural, & recreational services9.63.69.73.79.64.19.04.09.24.0Government services27.535.429.236.637.632.029.734.031.345.8Construction services1.06.00.07.50.010.20.010.00.05.9 Note: R: receipts; P: payments. Source: Bank of Jamaica. The main surplus is posted in travel. Estimated net foreign exchange earnings from the tourism industry amounted to US$951 million (or some 15% of GDP) in 2002, down from 2001 following the 11 September 2001 events. Gross travel earnings totalled US$1,209.4million. The transportation balance is traditionally in deficit; this shrank between 2001 and 2002 partly due to an increase in receipts from airfares. In the remaining services, as a whole, Jamaica also has a traditional deficit. Inflows for communication services have been among the fastest growing in recent years, associated with a higher volume of international calls terminated in Jamaica in the context of a rebalancing of external and domestic call rates. Foreign direct investment The stock of foreign direct investment (FDI) has increased substantially since the mid 1990s, to reach some US$4.4 billion in 2002 (Table I.6). According to an UNCTAD study, the stock of FDI represented 26.4% of gross fixed capital formation in 2001. Direct investment inflows peaked in 2001 (Table I.7). Retained earnings, divestment, and investment in the bauxite industry account for most of the flows in recent years. Apart from investment in the bauxite industry, the main FDI flows have been in communications, insurance, banking, information technology, tourism, manufacturing, and, to a lesser extent, agriculture and the film industry. The main foreign investors are the United States, the United Kingdom, and Canada. There are also a number of joint foreign investment projects and partnerships between Jamaican and foreign investors. Table I.6 Jamaica FDI stock, 1980-02 (US$ million and per cent of GDP)  1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2001 2002RPRPRPRPRPRPRPInward56421.35222579118.71,56832.33,31645.03,93050.54,40956.7Outward50.250.2421.03086.37099.679810.387211.2 Source: UNCTAD (2003), World Investment Report. Table I.7 FDI Inflows, 1998-02 (US$ million) 19981999200020012002Total foreign direct investment369.1523.7468.4613.9485.7 Sub-total sectors254.8218.1254.7258.7222.7 Bauxite 109.967.898.084.0108.4 Agriculture, manufacturing and distribution53.918.415.023.013.0 Information technology and communications85.249.657.0113.052.0 Minerals and chemicals3.129.59.615.70.3 Insurance0.00.06.00.00.0 Tourism2.752.869.024.049.0 Retained earnings101.187.3116.0116.0169.0 Divestment0.0177.240.9234.083.6 Insurance0.038.01.339.50.0 Manufacturing0.044.60.93.00.0 Tourism0.020.538.70.00.0 Communications0.00.00.00.10.0 Banking0.07.70.00.083.6 Electricity0.00.00.0191.40.0 Minerals0.066.40.00.00.0 Source: Information provided by the Bank of Jamaica, and UNCTAD (2003). Outlook Reflecting an improvement in world economic growth, Jamaica's GDP growth is expected to rise moderately. The IMF is tabling growth rates of 1.6% for both 2004 and 2005, while inflation is expected to be at 7% for both years. Jamaica will continue to be affected by high debt payments, which put pressure on interest rates and have a contractionary bias. The Jamaican Government is more optimistic with respect to the future performance of the economy. The Ministry of Finance, in the 2004/05 budget expresses its confidence that growth will be supported by a continued downward path of domestic interest rates, a more competitive exchange rate, and a resurgence in domestic and export agriculture, tourism, and mining (Table 1.8). The Ministry also expects that these developments will lower the balance-of-payments current account deficit. While sustained growth in the industrialized countries is expected to exert a positive effect on Jamaica's financial, tourism, and bauxite exports, higher international oil and commodities prices, in the near term, are expected to continue to negatively affect the Jamaican economy. Table I.8 Jamaica's medium-term economic outlook (Per cent) 2003/042004/052005/062006/072007/08Real GDP growth2.22.52.53.03.0Inflation16.59.07.06.06.0Fiscal balance/GDP-5.8-(3-4)00.5-11.02Primary surplus/GDP12.313.713.413.112.8 Source: Ministry of Finance and Planning (2004a), 2004/05 Budget Memorandum.  World Bank (2003).  World Bank (2002).  World Bank (2003).  World Bank (2003).  World Bank (2003).  World Bank (2003).  IMF (2004a) and (2004b).  IMF (2004).  Ministry of Finance and Planning (2004a).  Ministry of Finance and Planning (2004c).  LRSs accounted for over two thirds of domestic debt in 2002, representing some 60% of GDP, compared with 27.5% in 1996.  BOJ online information. Available at: http://www.boj.org.jm/objective_monetary.asp.  BOJ online information. Available at:http://www.boj.org.jm/pdf%20files/monetary_policy_manage. pdf.  Apart from repurchase and reverse repurchase transactions of government securities, open market operations in Jamaica include transactions in the BOJ's own certificates of deposits, used as an additional instrument to influence the level of liquidity in the financial system, the volume of credit and the level of interest rates. BOJ online information. Available at: http://www.boj.org.jm/instrument_monetary_pol.asp.  In this respect, the IMF has recommended that the Bank of Jamaica reorient monetary policy toward a greater focus on inflation, operating through shorter-term interest rates, rather than longer-term rates (IMF,2004a).  Bank of Jamaica (2003).  For example, 365-day repo rates jumped from 14.5% in December 2002 to 35.95% in March 2003, a clear indication of inflationary expectations, before declining gradually, to 23% by end 2003.  Bank rates equivalent to Jamaica's 30-day repo rate were 5.25% and 7%, respectively, in Guyana and in Trinidad and Tobago in late 2003, compared to 15% in Jamaica (Bank of Jamaica, 2003).  IMF (2004a).  Bank of Jamaica (2003).  Bank of Jamaicat(2003).  Bank of Jamaica (2002). The U.S. Hospitality Programme was put in place in 1997 (as the Jamaican Hotel Workers Programme). Under the programme, U.S.-based hotels that have clearance from the U.S. authorities, contact Jamaica's Ministry of Labour, which places advertisements in one of Jamaica's daily newspapers. Chosen candidates are granted special (H-2B) visas. The duration of the stay is generally of between six and nine months, but repeated visits are allowed. A similar programme exists for farmers. It is estimated that by 2002 some 4,500 U.S. hospitality workers were sending back to Jamaica US$7.5 million, while 3,500 farm workers sent US$3.8 million. (See Thomas, 2003).  This section is based on data provided by the Jamaican authorities; unless stated otherwise, free trade zone operations are excluded. COMTRADE data were not used because information is available only until 2000.  Bank of Jamaica (2002).  Bank of Jamaica (2002).  Using data provided by the Jamaican authorities, the decline in value terms is from US$526 million in 1998 to US$312 million in 2002. U.S. statistics show an even more dramatic fall in imports, from US$736million in 1998, to US$373 million in 2002; the brunt of the decline corresponded to a contraction of apparel imports from Jamaica, which fell from US$423 million in 1998, to US$124 million in 2002. (USITC database. Available at: www.usitc.gov).  UNCTAD (2004).  IMF (2004b).  Ministry of Finance and Planning online information. Available at: http://www.mof.gov.jm/ jabudget.shtml. WT/TPR/S/139 Trade Policy Review Page  PAGE 16 Jamaica WT/TPR/S/139 Page  PAGE 1 Page I. 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