ࡱ> :<3456789@ bjbj :|uu4YVVVj---8..dj,55:<5<5<5<59L ;0222222$ݐR/&VVL<5<5LLVVV<5<5kQQQL4V<5V<50QL0QQeVVpm<54 ¬Og-Lm,AQ4E,`H!;;;VVjdҥQjҥEconomic environment Introduction Economic growth in the Philippines has resumed following the Asian financial crisis, with an average rate of over 4% annually during 1999-04, including more than 6% in 2004. Nonetheless, nominal GDP per head surpassed 1999 levels only in 2004 (US$1,026). At the same time, unemployment has risen to almost 12%. The economy remains frail and vulnerable to external shocks, and this is compounded by the Philippines' declining international competitiveness. Improved productivity is essential to meet the increasing competition from China and other low-cost economies. Philippine exports, which are concentrated in electronics, performed better in 2004, but have benefited less from China's economic expansion than have exports from other regional economies, and have recovered slowly since the 2001 global recession. Investment has almost stagnated, and most growth since then has come from private consumption, supported by rising overseas remittances. The lack of competitiveness reflects deep-seated macroeconomic and structural problems. The Philippines growth prospects thus hinge on comprehensive macroeconomic, institutional, and other structural reforms to promote macro-stability, efficiency, and investment. These reforms would improve the economy's performance and increase its resilience to external shocks. Broad fiscal reforms are needed to reduce persistently large budget deficits and overall public debt levels (including external) which have only just edged below GDP, and generate substantial external financing requirements, a major source of vulnerability. Increased investment, including FDI, and related reforms would promote productivity and help establish robust growth, as would renewed trade liberalization. After being returned in the 2004 elections, the Government reiterated the need to implement significant macroeconomic and structural reforms to reduce the budget deficit and to promote efficiency. The timely and sustained implementation of these and other needed reforms remains the key to sustainable economic recovery. Recent Economic Performance Growth has been restored since the last Review of the Philippines, averaging over 4% annually during 1999-04. Although dropping to 1.8% in 2001, it accelerated to 4.7% in 2003 and 6.1% in 2004 (TableI.1). However, the economy remains frail and the recovery uncertain, constrained by fiscal as well as structural problems, and vulnerable to external shocks. Domestic factors hampering economic growth since 1999 include the political crisis in 2000, the persistent budget deficit resulting in burgeoning public debt and associated large external financing requirements, and the long-standing institutional and governance weaknesses, which inhibit private sector development. Addressing these would promote sustained longer-term growth and help alleviate poverty by increasing employment. Despite higher rates of growth since 1999, unemployment rose to 11.8% in 2004 after stabilizing at 11.4% during 2002-03. Although inflation more than halved from 1999-03 to 3%, it jumped to 5.5% in 2004. Table I.1 Selected macroeconomic indicators, 1999-04 199920002001200220032004aNational accounts(Percentage change)Real GDP (1985 market price)3.44.41.84.34.76.1Private consumption2.63.53.64.15.35.8Government consumption6.76.2-5.3-3.7 0.5-0.8Gross fixed capital formation-2.024.0-7.3-5.02.95.1Net exports of goods and non-factor services3.617.0-3.43.64.414.0Unemployment rate (%)9.811.211.111.411.411.8Prices and interest rates(Per cent, unless otherwise indicated)Inflation (CPI, percentage change)6.74.36.13.03.05.5Deposit rate (period average)7.37.47.54.24.24.3Lending rate (period average)11.810.912.48.99.510.1Money, credit (end period)(Percentage change)Money supply (M1)40.0-1.80.321.28.610.0Money supply (M2)19.34.86.99.63.38.2Money supply (M3)19.34.66.89.53.38.2Credit to private sector-1.28.1-3.01.21.83.6Exchange rateNominal exchange rate indexb2.6-9.0-8.9-1.6-11.211.9Real effective exchange rate indexb8.7-6.8-4.90.4-10.0-4.3PhP/US$39.144.251.051.654.256.0Fiscal policy(Per cent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)National government balancec-3.8-4.0-4.0-5.3-4.6-3.8Total revenue16.115.3 15.514.314.614.4Tax revenue14.513.713.512.512.512.3Total expenditure19.819.319.619.619.218.3Current17.617.517.9......Non-financial public sector balanced-3.2-4.5-4.8-5.7-5.7-5.1Non-financial public sector debte83.688.387.693.9101.299.2Public sector total debt 72.079.078.486.094.5..Domestic debt33.132.234.637.740.1..Savings and investmentGross national savings28.229.420.823.3 20.921.7Gross domestic investment18.821.219.017.616.617.2Savings-investment gap9.48.21.85.7 4.34.5External sectorCurrent account balance 9.58.21.85.74.24.7Remittances8.98.0 8.59.49.610.0Net merchandise trade 6.55.0-1.00.5-1.6-1.8Value of exports44.949.1 43.944.843.945.8Value of imports38.444.144.944.345.547.7Services balance-3.5-3.2-2.9-1.3-1.5-1.1Capital account0.00.10.00.00.00Financial account -3.1-5.5-1.8-2.1-6.7-2.7Direct investment2.31.91.62.20.20.4Table I.1 (cont'd)Balance of payments 4.7-0.7-0.3-0.90.1-0.3Terms of trade, 1995=100127.27124.94123.25114.93....Merchandise exports (percentage change)18.88.7-15.69.52.99.9Merchandise imports (percentage change)4.112.2-4.27.25.88.2Services exports (percentage change)-35.8-17.3-20.7-3.0-2.823.3Services imports (percentage change)-25.6-14.8-18.8-21.73.15.8Gross official reserves (US$ billion)f13.213.013.413.113.512.9in months of imports3.93.64.03.93.73.3Gross external public debt (end period) 67.067.472.969.972.466.2in US$ billion51.051.251.953.657.455.6National government gross financing requirementsg23.722.221.423.223.724.4Foreign4.13.71.95.15.64.1Debt service ratioh14.112.415.816.417.214.5.. Not available. a Preliminary. b Index based on 2 January 2003=100 after 2000 (previously 2000=100). c National definition. Includes privatization receipts of the national government, and excludes net deficit from restructuring the Central Bank. d Includes the National Government, Central Bank-Board of Liquidators, 14 monitored government-owned enterprises, social security institutions and local government, as well as Public Sector Borrowing Requirement (PSBR) adjustments (January-September only). e Gross debt net of sinking fund and social security institutions' holdings of national government securities. May include other debt held by other parts of the non-financial public sector. f Excludes gold. g The deficit plus amortization of medium- and long-term debt, the stock of short-term debt at the end of the last period, and market financing on behalf of the National Power Corporation. h As a percentage of goods, services receipts and income. Source: Central Bank of the Philippines, Annual Report, various years; IMF (2004), Philippines: 2004 Post Program Monitoring Discussions Staff Report, Country Report No. 04/317, October [online]. Available at: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2004/ cr04317/.pdf; IMF (2005), Staff Report for the 2004 Article IV Consultations and Post-Program Monitoring Discussions, Country Report No. 05/105, Washington DC, March2005 [Online]. Available at: http://imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2005/cr05105.pdf; and the Philippine authorities. Growth during the review period has been mainly due to private consumption, which, supported by overseas remittances, accounted for over 80% of growth in 2003. After contracting in 2001 due to the world recession, exports, especially of electronics, increased slowly, albeit substantially in 2004. Private investment has contributed little to growth; gross fixed capital formation recovered slowly in 2003 and 2004 after declining in the previous two years. Fiscal pressures, exacerbated by rising debt service payments, have also curtailed essential public infrastructure investment. The Philippines has been unable to attract sufficient foreign investment, partly because of the higher cost of capital due to increased risk-adjusted interest rates associated with its high risk (Section 6). Uncertain fiscal and other policies, security concerns, weak institutions, and poor infrastructure continue to deter private, especially foreign, investment. The Philippines' business environment also appears to be less conducive to private investment than in many other, including neighbouring, economies. Its relative international competitiveness has also seemingly declined sharply. Competition for foreign direct investment (FDI) is likely to intensify as China and other neighbouring low-cost countries continue to be increasingly attractive to FDI and become more competitive in major export markets, such as the United States and the EU, especially in clothing, following the removal of quotas in 2005. Services (including utilities and construction) continue to dominate the economy, representing 60.7% of GDP in nominal terms in 2004 (60.6% in 1999) (Table I.2). Led by transport, communications, trade and financial services, the sector has been the key driver of growth since 1999, with real growth averaging over 5% (7.3% in 2004). The share of manufacturing in nominal GDP also rose slightly from 21.6% to 23.0% during 1999-04, while that of agriculture (including fisheries and forestry) contracted substantially from 17.1% to 15.3%, although it rose from 14.8% in 2003. Favourable weather conditions, complemented by government programmes, have helped agricultural growth to rise in real terms to 4.9% in 2004, just behind manufacturing (5.0%). The authorities expect services to continue to spearhead growth in 2005 with real growth of 6.6%-7.0% envisaged on the back of robust exports from business outsourcing activities, namely call centre operations. Agriculture and manufacturing are expected to exhibit real growth in 2005 of 4.2%-4.4% and 4.2%-6.4%, respectively. Table I.2 Basic economic and social indicators, 1999-04 199920002001200220032004Real GDP (1985 prices, PhP billion)918.2973.0990.01,033.01,081.51,148.0Real GDP (1985 prices: US$ million)49,344.152,289.253,207.255,514.258,122.261,696.4Nominal GDP (PhP billion)2,976.93,354.73,631.53,959.64,299.94,843.5Nominal GDP (US$ million)76,157.075,909.471,215.676,732.079,329.786,428.6Nominal GDP per capita (US$)991.9988.5908.8954.0963.81,026.0GDP by industry at 1985 prices(Annual percentage change)Agriculture, fisheries and forestry 6.54.33.73.83.84.9Mining and quarrying-8.411.3-6.5 51.0 16.84.3Manufacturing1.65.62.93.5 4.25.0Services 4.0 4.4 4.3 5.1 5.87.3Construction -1.6 1.4-23.1-5.7-2.68.9Electricity, gas, and water 3.14.2 0.7 4.3 3.23.9Wholesale and retail trade4.95.25.65.85.76.8Transport and communications5.310.48.88.98.612.2Finance1.90.91.23.4 7.18.4Table I.2 (cont'd)Ownership of dwellings and real estate0.60.0-0.51.7 4.06.0Public administration3.1 1.70.9 1.5 5.16.8Private services5.8 4.84.45.5 2.91.6GDP by industry at current prices(Per cent)Agriculture, fisheries and forestry 17.115.815.115.114.815.3Mining and quarrying0.60.60.60.81.0 1.1Manufacturing21.622.222.9 23.123.323.0Services60.661.461.4 60.960.860.7Construction5.56.54.94.74.44.5Electricity, gas, and water2.92.93.23.13.23.2Wholesale and retail trade14.114.114.2 14.014.014.1Transport and communications5.45.96.87.07.37.6Finance4.84.44.44.34.44.4Ownership of dwellings and real estate7.06.66.56.46.36.1Private services11.311.411.912.212.512.5Government services 9.89.5 9.3 9.1 8.88.1Share in employmentaAgriculture38.837.137.237.0 36.636.0Mining and quarrying0.30.40.40.40.3 0.4Manufacturing9.99.99.99.5 9.69.7Services51.052.652.553.153.553.9Electricity, gas, and water0.50.40.40.40.4 0.4Wholesale and retail tradeb15.716.318.018.718.318.6Construction5.55.45.45.35.55.4Transport and communications6.97.27.27.27.57.7Hotels and restaurants.... 2.32.32.4 2.5Financing, insurance, real estate and business services2.52.62.8 2.83.11.6Community, social and personal services19.920.716.416.416.317.7.. Not available. a As of January each year. b For 2001 and 2002, includes repair of motor vehicles, motorcycles, personal and household goods. Note: Figures may not add due to rounding. Source: Data provided by the Philippine authorities and the National Statistics Office. With gross national saving exceeding gross domestic investment, the current account balance has recorded surpluses; although these rose in 2004 from 4.2% to 4.7% of GDP, they have declined since 1999 (from 9.5%). A significant source of national savings and current account surpluses are overseas remittances, which continued to rise substantially in 2004 to US$8.5 billion or 10% of GDP (US$6.8billion, or 8.9%, in 1999). The authorities expect these to grow by 6.0% in 2005, and thereby to continue providing strength and stability to the peso and thus help to stabilize import prices and overall inflation. The trade balance as a share of GDP has declined since 1999, and was again negative in 2003 (-1.6%) and 2004 (-1.8%). The financial account deficit has fluctuated since 1999, rising to 6.7% of GDP in 2003 when inward FDI slumped and net portfolio investment was unusually negative. This was reversed somewhat in 2004 when the deficit contracted to 2.7% of GDP due to higher foreign direct and portfolio investment. International reserves, which have been relatively stable since 1999, declined from their peak of US$13.5 billion (equivalent to 3.7 months of merchandise imports) in 2003 to US$12.9 billion (3.3 months) in 2004. Gross external public debt peaked at US$57.4 billion in 2003 (72.4% of GDP) before falling to US$55.6 billion (66.2%) in 2004. The associated debt/service ratio also peaked at 17.2% in 2003, dropping to 14.5% in 2004. If left unchecked, the relatively high level of external public debt and accompanying government foreign financing requirements, which almost tripled to US$5.6 billion from 2001 to 2003 (US$ 4.1 billion in 2004), might generate pressures to further restrict imports in order to increase international reserves. Macroeconomic Policies Persistent fiscal deficits and resulting large public debt pose the greatest risk to macro-stability. The associated large external financing requirement is a drag on the economy and makes it vulnerable to external shocks, such as swings in confidence, rising global interest rates and oil prices, and international recession. High public indebtedness reflects the national government deficit, and the large accumulated debt of government-owned and controlled corporations (GOCC). The total non-financial public sector deficit rose from 3.2% to 5.7% during 1999-03, before falling to 5.1% in2004. Fiscal policy Fiscal policy, tightened since 2002, remains expansionary. After peaking at 5.3% of GDP in 2002, the national government deficit declined to 4.6% in 2003 and returned to its 1999 level of 3.8% in 2004 (Table I.1). National Government debt in 2003 exceeded revenue fivefold, and debt service payments amounted to over one third of total revenue. Such debt reduces the private sectors access to finance, and crowds out public investment in essential infrastructure as budgetary funds are increasingly committed to servicing debt. Rising deficits of GOCCs' entities, especially the National Power Corporation (NPC) and the National Food Authority, compound the problem and have until recently offset reductions in the national government deficit; the NPCs deficit of 1.5% of GDP in 2004 accounted for nearly 30% of the non-financial public sector deficit. The non-financial public sector debt, which exceeded GDP in 2003, was expected to fall slightly to 99.2% of GDP in 2004. Mounting contingent liabilities compound the Governments potential indebtedness. These include state guarantees on loans to GOCCs and build-operate-transfer contracts, as well as non-funded benefits under state pension schemes and liquidity support extended to troubled banks. The Government's macroeconomic priorities include reducing the public sector deficit to 1% of GDP and achieving a balanced budget (albeit not until 2010, as provided for in the Medium-Term Philippine Development Plan (MTPDP) 2004-10) through revenue and expenditure initiatives and key structural measures to restart the reform process, such as electricity privatization and reducing waste and corruption through public sector rationalization (Box I.1). Key fiscal priorities include expanding revenues and achieving budgetary savings, while at the same time increasing expenditure on infrastructure and social programmes. The MTPDP 2004-10 also recognized the need to address macroeconomic, especially fiscal, instability, as well as corruption, excessive bureaucracy, and regulation. Box I.1: Policies of the new administration The President's inaugural speech, on 30 June 2004, announced the following ten-point agenda: - create 6-10 million jobs, support 3 million entrepreneurs, and develop 1-2 million hectares of land for agri-business; - ensure education for all children; - balance the budget; - link the entire country via a transport and digital infrastructure network; - provide power and water to all barangays (neighbourhoods); - decongest metro Manila; - develop the Subic-Clark corridor into the regions most competitive international service and logistic centre; - computerize the electoral process; - bring peace to Mindanao; and - reconcile the divisive issues generated by previous popular revolts. The President recognized in her State of the Nation Address (SONA) to Congress in July 2004 that the most urgent problem was the chronic budget deficit that had squeezed infrastructure investment and programmes necessary for peace. The Administrations key fiscal priorities include: - expand revenues, spending on infrastructure and social programmes, and find budgetary savings; - revenue measures would be legislated, aimed at raising PhP80 billion (1.6% of GDP), including (a)a gross income tax system, (b) changes to the VAT (as yet unspecified), (c) a telecom franchise tax, (d)indexation of excise taxes on alcohol, tobacco and petroleum products, (e) rationalization of fiscal incentives, (f) introduction of a targeted tax amnesty, and (f) creation of a performance-driven framework for revenue agencies; - raise another PhP20 billion through administrative measures such as increasing efficiency and reducing costs, increasing specific charges and fees, raising duties on petroleum products, and increasing profit transfers from government corporations; - privatization of electricity assets to provide cheaper power, and reiterate to Congress the priority passage of the delayed TRANSCO Franchise Bill to facilitate sale of the national electricity grid; - re-engineering of government agencies to reduce waste and corruption, including closing of further offices; and - increase spending on areas of critical social need, such as health, clean water, and education, and the need to advance land reform and for Congress to pass the "farmland as collateral" bill. Source: IMF, Philippines: 2004 Post Program Monitoring Discussion, Country Report No. 04/317, October,2004The major fiscal weakness and contributor to persistent budget deficits is inadequate tax revenues. These continued to fall, to 12.3% of GDP in 2004 (14.5% in 1999), partly due to revenue forgone (equivalent to some 2% of GDP) through the pervasive use of potentially distorting tax incentives, such as for export-oriented enterprises, and increased tax avoidance, if not evasion. The cost-effectiveness of tax expenditures in promoting investment is questionable (ChapterIII), and they distort resource allocation and facilitate tax avoidance by making the tax system more complex and less transparent. Until recently, the real value of specific excise taxes had also fallen substantially due to unchanged rates. Low tax revenues may also undermine the effectiveness of fiscal policy in contributing to macroeconomic stability and efforts to improve human capital through, for example, expenditure on education and health, protection of the poor, and to address critical shortcomings in infrastructure. In addition, reforming the internal tax system would enable the Government to reduce reliance on import duties as a source of revenue, which is a possible obstacle to sustainable tariff reductions. Expenditure rationalization and civil service reforms are envisaged to promote efficiency and to improve financial management, accountability, and control. A medium-term budgetary framework was adopted, and a National Government Accounting System (NGAS) introduced in January 2002. Control procedures were improved by requiring internal audit units to be introduced in all government agencies from 2003. The Commission of Audit was also restructured and its external auditing functions strengthened. Since October 2004, public agencies have been preparing rationalization plans aimed at eliminating redundant positions. Reforming the public pension scheme would contribute to fiscal consolidation. While contribution rates were increased recently and costs cut to enable pension funds to run small cash surpluses, the Social Security System, which covers non-government employees, could face financial difficulties by 2015 due to weak asset management and high benefits in relation to contribution rates. A more coherent and open government procurement system, based on international competition to ensure value for money rather than using it as an instrument of industrial policy, would also contribute to fiscal consolidation and efficiency. Monetary and exchange rate policy The Central Bank (BSP), which, according to the authorities, was granted full independence in 1993 under the New Central Bank Act (RA No. 7653), remains committed to price stability, the main monetary policy objective. This was reinforced by the adoption of inflation targeting in January2002. Annual targets are set for "headline inflation". The target was set at 4.5% to 5.5% in 2002 and 2003, and 4% to 5% in 2004. While inflation was kept well below targeted levels in 2002 and 2003, it accelerated above the 2004 target to 5.5%, due mainly to higher food, fuel, and transport prices. Targets for 2005 were recently revised upwards from 4.0%-5.0% to 5.0%-6.0%. Annual inflation, running at 7.9% in December 2004 and over 8% in early 2005, is still likely to exceed the revised 2005 target due to the continued rise in global oil prices. Nevertheless, the Central Bank believes that average inflation for 2006 will return within the targeted range of 4.0% to 5.0%. Monetary policy is conducted through open market operations, reserve requirements and transactions under rediscounting facilities, which use a market-based pricing mechanism. The policy instrument is the interest rate. Despite the IMF's perceived need for the Philippines to tighten monetary policy to curb inflation, the BSPs key policy interest rate remained unchanged at 6.75% (reverse repurchase rate) and 9.0% (overnight repurchase rate); it was last increased in July 2003. According to the BSPs latest monetary policy assessment, inflationary pressures remain tied to transitory supply-side factors that are best mitigated by appropriate non-monetary policy measures to facilitate timely importation, distribution, and delivery of certain commodities. Money supply growth accelerated in 2004 after declining sharply in 2003, but remained below 10% for all monetary measures (M1, M2, and M3). The Philippines continues to have a floating exchange rate regime with the pesos value set by the market. The BSP intervenes in the exchange rate market, according to the authorities, only to smooth out excessive exchange rate volatility, and monetary policy is not used to meet any particular exchange rate objectives. It nevertheless monitors the foreign exchange market to assess the likely impact of currency movements on inflation. The authorities also indicate that a specified target exists for gross international reserves (GIR) of US$16 billion at end 2005. The pesos nominal and real exchange rates have depreciated almost continuously since 2000, including by 11.9% and 4.3% in 2004, respectively. The peso depreciated nominally against the U.S. dollar by 43% during 1999-04, but has remained relatively stable in recent years, depreciating by 5% in 2003 and 3.3% in 2004. Structural Measures Reform progress to date has been mixed, due mainly to weak or inconsistent implementation in key areas. Tackling structural problems could help the Philippines meet its economic challenges. Reducing the burgeoning overall public debt requires the budget deficit and GOCCs' losses to be contained. Boosting tax revenues is the key to sustained improvement in the budget deficit. Tax reforms along with improved collection and compliance to reduce evasion are needed. The mis-use of tax measures as an instrument of industry policy rather than a source of government revenue, which has distorted resource allocation and eroded the tax base through the proliferation of tax incentives, could also be curtailed (section (3)(i)). The erosion of the internal tax base has necessitated a minimum corporate income tax (levied at the rate of 2% on gross income), which tends to vitiate the tax relief from tax incentives. It also requires the Government to rely on tariffs for a substantial share of tax revenue; they accounted for over 7% of total tax revenue in 2002. Replacing tariffs with less distorting indirect taxes could result in a substantial welfare gain to the economy. The Government's announced measures to boost tax revenue by PhP80billion addresses many of these issues (Box I.1). However, implementation has been slow; only the higher excise taxes on alcohol and tobacco, yielding about 0.2% of GDP, have been implemented (January 2004). It also remains unclear how and to what extent tax incentives are to be rationalized. Investment incentives are to be consolidated into a single law currently being debated by Congress that will better target activities. But, while it places a 20-year limit on their duration, it does not significantly reduce the largest incentives, such as tax holidays for exporters, and even proposes new incentives. Other announced revenue-generating measures include raising excise duties on petroleum products, which is proving difficult as prices are already high due to rising world oil prices, and increasing transfers from profitable government corporations. A major proposal, expected to yield an additional PhP60 billion annually, is to raise the VAT rate from 10% to 12% and to remove many non-standard exemptions on goods and services, including gradually introducing VAT on electricity over four years and taxing basic foodstuffs like sardines, noodles, cooking oil, sugar, and milk, at a reduced rate of 6%. Tax administration and collection is being improved, including the introduction of performance criteria for revenue agencies, such as for customs and internal revenue. Poorly performing GOCCs continue to be a substantial fiscal burden. Improving their efficiency by promoting more competitive markets would benefit the economy, and pricing reforms to ensure cost recovery along with their accelerated privatization would contribute to fiscal consolidation (Chapter III). Reducing these losses is closely tied to electricity reforms; the state-owned NPC has the highest deficit (PhP52.5 billion as of September 2004, equivalent to 1.5% of GDP). Such reforms, including deregulation to achieve a competitive market and privatization of generation plants and of the national electricity grid (TRANSCO) are again a government priority after lengthy delays (Chapter IV). These measures would raise the sectors efficiency and minimize the risk of supply shortages by facilitating much needed private investment. An important impediment to market access and competition in services is FDI caps of 40% in key markets, such as utilities and telecommunications (Chapter IV). On-going strengthening of the regulatory regimes to safeguard competition in these network services would also promote efficiency and lower prices. The financial sector, including the banking system, is being restructured (Chapter IV). Despite the strengthening of the regulatory and supervisory framework in line with BIS recommendations, the banking sector remains fragile due mainly to the high incidence of non-performing loans (NPLs). While banks are being encouraged to voluntarily offload NPLs to private entities, low bank capitalization remains a prudential concern and contributes to the low growth in loans. The banking sectors efficiency could be increased through greater competition. An extended three-year moratorium, introduced in May 2000, prevents new domestic and foreign banks from being established (thereby limiting entry to the purchase of an existing bank). New foreign bank branches also remain prohibited and foreign equity in a domestic bank is capped at 60%, although this was lifted temporarily for seven years to allow up to full foreign ownership of one existing local bank until May 2007. Improved financial intermediation would foster more efficient investment and thereby contribute to sustained economic growth. While the Philippines is now more open, trade barriers still impose unnecessary large economic costs. Further trade liberalization could improve efficiency by providing greater competition. However, tariff reductions were recently "re-calibrated" and rates selectively raised on many products in response to industry requests for assistance to provide time to improve competitiveness, and revenue concerns stemming from inadequate tax receipts (Chapter IV(4)(ii)). Resuming trade liberalization, including for sensitive agricultural products, and accelerating other structural reforms, would boost productivity, which appears to be lowest in agriculture and services. A number of structural problems that have traditionally hampered labour productivity would also need to be tackled, such as poor infrastructure, low quality schooling, weak technological capacity, and a generally poor investment climate. Developments in Trade Merchandise exports recovered slowly from the 2001 global downturn in demand for electronics, remaining around 44% of GDP until rising to 45.8% in 2004, still below the 2000 level of 49.1% (Table I.1). Exports decreased by 15.6% in 2001, and recovered slowly, especially in 2003 when growth fell from 9.5% to 2.9%. Growth was stronger in 2004 (9.9%). Growth in merchandise imports has outstripped GDP, rising from 38.4% in 1999 to 47.7% in 2004. Imports have grown relatively strongly, except for a decline of 4.2% in 2001 (8.2% growth in 2004). Exports and imports of services have declined substantially since 1999 from a GDP share of about 6% and 10% to 4% and 5% in 2004, respectively. However, service exports jumped by 23.3% in 2004. Composition of merchandise trade The Philippines continues to rely heavily on manufactured exports (Chart I.1), which accounted for 89.8% of exports in 2003 (92.0% in 1999). They are mainly electronic circuits, other electrical machines, and computer, telecommunications, and office equipment. Combined, these represented 69.6% of total exports in 2003, down from 74.6% in 1999. Of these products, the main category, "electronic integrated circuits and microassemblies", declined from 44.4% of total exports in 1999 to 36.9% in 2003, while "office machines and other telecommunications equipment" rose from 24.2% to 28.7%. Clothing exports still represented about 6% of exports in 2003. Manufactured goods continue to account for most imports (79% in 1999 and 2003). They included mainly office machines and telecommunications equipment, which increased their share of imports from 38.7% in 1999 to 44.0% in 2003, and chemicals (8.1% in 2003). The share of mining imports was 12.4% in 2003 (10.8% in 1999), and comprised mainly fuels.   Direction of merchandise trade The United States remains the Philippines' main trading partner, accounting in 2003 for 20.1% of exports (down from 29.9% in 1999) and 19.4% of imports (20.5% in 1999) (ChartI.2). Other major export markets in 2003 were the European Union (16.3%, down from 19.3% in 1999) and Japan (15.9%, up from 13.3% in 1999). There has been a shift of exports towards Asian destinations; East Asian economies as a group increased their share of exports from 46.2% in 1999 to 59.1% in 2003. The share of exports to ASEAN markets in 2003 rose to 18.2% (mainly Malaysia and Singapore) from 14.2% in 1999. In 2003, imports continued to be sourced mainly from Japan (20.4%), the United States, and other East Asian markets (37.7% excluding Japan), especially Singapore (6.8%) and Korea(6.4%). The European Unions share of imports fell to 8.0% in 2003 (9.1% in 1999); ASEAN members accounted for 17.2% (14.6% in 1999), mainly from Singapore and Thailand. The Philippines' increased share of trade with ASEAN partners since 1999 may reflect trade diversion attributable to preferential tariff reductions extended by ASEAN members under AFTA. Trade in services The Philippines remains a net importer of services; the services deficit as a share of GDP fell from 3.5% in 1999 to 1.1% in 2004 (Table I.1). Travel accounted for about half of total services exported in 2003, followed by transport (19.6%), communications (16.0%) and "other business services" (7.9%) (Table I.3). The main services imports in 2003 were transportation (53.3%), travel (15.1%), "other business services" (11.1%), insurance (7.3%) and "royalties and licence fees" (6.5%). Table I.3 Trade in services, 1999-04 (US$ million and per cent) 199920002001200220032004aServices balance (US$ million)-2,712-2,430-2,050-1,017-1,227-701Export of services4,8033,9723,1483,0552,9702,665of which(per cent)Transportation12.022.420.920.619.616.7Travel53.253.754.757.049.354.8Communications8.84.610.410.116.014.0Insurance1.11.71.51.11.81.9Government0.50.91.10.90.5-Construction1.22.42.00.91.72.2Financial1.42.01.01.02.01.3Computer & information1.21.90.70.70.80.8Personal, cultural and recreational1.21.10.50.20.30.3Other business services19.39.07.07.37.97.8Table I.3 (cont'd)Import of services (US$ million)7,5156,4025,1984,0724,1973,366of which(per cent)Transportation25.946.746.549.153.359.5Travel17.415.723.621.415.113.4Communications9.74.14.12.12.02.8Insurance1.12.52.46.97.36.1Government0.30.3 0.10.20.61.0Construction2.21.95.83.01.51.1Financial4.27.31.41.11.31.8Computer & information1.31.51.61.11.00.9Royalties and licence fees1.53.13.15.66.54.9Personal, cultural and recreational1.82.01.10.40.40.3Other business services34.614.910.48.911.18.1a Preliminary figures for January September. Source: IMF, Balance of Payments and International Investment Statistics, various years; and the Philippine authorities. Developments in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) FDI remains an important factor in the countrys development. Success in attracting significant inflows, however, has been hampered by investor uncertainty over economic stability, especially the fiscal position, political uncertainties, the poor investment climate, and increased competition for FDI from neighbouring economies. The Philippines is ranked as performing "below potential" in attracting inward FDI (i.e. has high FDI potential but low FDI performance). Improving the investment climate would facilitate sustained growth. FDI improves labour and total factor productivity by increasing the amount of capital labour has to work with and by providing a vehicle for disseminating new technology and working methods. Since 1999, inward FDI has been erratic. It slumped from US$1.7 billion in 2002 (2.2% of GDP) to US$0.2 billion in 2003 and 2004 (0.2%). The Philippines stock of FDI fell from US$12.8billion in 2000 to US$11.5billion in 2003. FDI approvals rose substantially in 2004 from PhP34.0 billion to PhP130.6 billion (first three quarters). In 2003, the approvals were mainly from investors in the United States (31%), Japan (26%), the Netherlands (11%), and Chinese Taipei (8%). Some 60% of approvals were in manufacturing, followed by construction (8%), gas (5%), and communications (4%). Net portfolio investment has also deteriorated, from US$7.7 billion in 1999 to minus US$0.7 billion in 2003. It is expected to recover somewhat in 2004, to US$0.6billion. Prospects The authorities are targeting growth of between 5.3% and 6.3% in 2006, based on robust growth in industry and services, and of around 7% annually until 2010 (MTPDP 2004-10). Inflation, although almost certain to again be above the 2005 target, due mainly to higher food, fuel, and transport prices, is expected by the authorities to revert to the 4.0%-5.0% target range in 2006 and to subsequently fall to within 3.0% to 4.0%. The national government budget deficit, planned to be phased out by 2010, is expected to fall to 3.6% of GDP in 2005. However, the IMFs moderate reform scenario projects inflation stabilizing at 4.0% from 2007, and slower growth, of 4.7% from 2005 falling to 4.0% in 2010. This would coincide with a falling national government deficit of 3.1% in 2010, a non-financial public sector deficit of 4.3%, and non-financial public sector debt of 92.6%. Sustained future growth will require domestic policy reforms, including reducing the high overall public debt and large external financing requirements, further trade and investment liberalization, and other structural reforms to improve productivity in order to compete with low-cost neighbouring economies. While a number of key policy measures were announced recently, such as progressively eliminating the budget deficit and renewed efforts to deregulate electricity and reform the banking sector, implementation and reform sustainability remain uncertain. Trade liberalization has slowed and slippage has occurred in some other key policy reforms. Addressing these major policy concerns along with institutional weaknesses, including economic governance, and promoting more competition in services and in other markets, along with a sounder more efficient financial sector, will also improve the investment and business climate needed to attract FDI and private sector development. Without these reforms, growth prospects are likely to remain uncertain.  Adverse external developments that have hampered economic performance since 1999 include the world economic slowdown in 2001, the Iraq war, and the SARS outbreak in 2003, which affected tourism.  There were also on-going security concerns, especially in Mindanao, which were compounded by the military mutiny in July 2003.  Short-term interest rates in the Philippines are among the region's highest, and according to the Economist Intelligence Unit's country risk rating (based on 77 indicators of political stability and other measures of credit quality), the country became even riskier in 2004 given its heavy indebtedness and sluggish pace of reform (The Economist, "Emerging-market indicators", 26 February 2005, p. 98).  World Bank (2004c).  World Bank (2004a). The Philippines' relatively low ranking (70th out of 103 countries) in the Business Competitiveness Index published by the World Economic Forum also reflects significant productivity constraints at the micro-level (World Economic Forum, 2004).  According to the World Economic Forum's Growth Competitiveness Index, the Philippines international competitiveness ranking dropped from 66th in 2003 to 76th in 2004 (one of the largest falls of any country) (World Economic Forum, 2004). Among the reasons for the deteriorating rank were the poor quality of public institutions (corruption, regulatory and contracts environment) and the macroeconomic environment (government waste and macro-instability).  Clothing is the Philippines' second largest single export, and the Government is trying to improve the industry's competitiveness. Nevertheless, since clothing accounts for about 6% of total exports, the negative effects on the economy of ending of the ATC as from 2005 are likely to be moderate.  The significance of remittances highlights the importance to the Philippines of overseas economies opening their service markets to foreign personnel (GATS Mode 4).  The negative financial account is due mainly to large outflows recorded as "other investment", which includes loans, currency and deposits, and trade credits. According to the authorities, current monitoring and reporting problems in trade and foreign exchange data reduce the reliability of estimated trade credits. The Philippines balance of payments also records sizeable outflows under Net Unclassified Items (or "errors and omissions") due, according to the authorities, to inadequacies in the databases used to compile such statistics. Net Unclassified Items amounted to a deficit of US$1.4 billion (2.4% of total trade) in 2004 (January-September). This makes interpreting the data difficult (IMF, 2004b).  Public sentiment is likely to remain brittle until substantive reforms are made. For example, one rating agency downgraded the Philippines sovereign debt rating in January 2005, largely due to on-going fiscal concerns and inadequate tax reforms.  The non-financial public sector deficit includes the national government, Central Bank-Board of Liquidators, 14 monitored government-owned enterprises, social security institutions, and local government.  World Bank (2004c).  A proposed 40% hike in average generation tariffs in September 2004 and the Governments decision to absorb PhP200 billion of NPCs debts from 2005 is expected to reduce its deficit in that year to 0.75% of GDP.  The Governments estimates of contingent liabilities of PhP708 billion (16% of GDP) at end-2003 included only estimates of the value of direct guarantees on GOCC loans (World Bank, 2004c).  World Bank (2004c).  World Bank (2004c).  Revenue losses from tariff cuts could also be minimized by simultaneously removing tariff concessions and relaxing restrictive tariff quotas to allow more dutiable agricultural imports.  IMF (2004a).  The authorities indicate that the Central Bank has full independence. It selects monetary instruments free from governmental influence, and is no longer involved in quasi-fiscal and developmental financing functions. Explicit limits apply on the amount and duration of advances or loans it extends to government.  Headline inflation, the annual percentage change in the CPI published by the National Statistics Office (NSO), measures average prices of a standard "basket" of goods and services. The NSO also measures core inflation, which is headline inflation after excluding rice, corn, fruit, vegetables, LPG, kerosene, oil, gasoline, and diesel. Core and headline inflation have tracked each other closely.  The target was also revised upwards to take account of the NSOs shift to a newly-based (from 1994 to 2000) CPI, which, according to authorities, raised measured headline inflation by about half a percentage point.  The inter-agency planning body, the Development Budget and Coordination Committee (DBCC), sets the targets. The target for 2007-10 was set at 3.0% to 4.0%. Inflation may deviate from the target due to volatile prices of unprocessed foods and oil products, significant policy changes that directly affect prices (e.g. taxes, incentives, and subsidies), or natural factors affecting the major part of the economy. The BSP must provide an Open Letter to the President to explain any deviation of inflation from the targeted level. It issued an Open Letter in January 2004 to explain why 2003 inflation was below the target and again in January 2005 when the 2004 target was exceeded.  Philippine Daily Inquirer, "BSP sees February inflation rate at 8.3-8.8%", 1 March 2004, p. B3.  The Philippines maintains an exchange rate system free of restrictions on payments and transfers for current international transactions (IMF Article VIII).  The Central Bank sets the GIR target and reports it to the Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC), which consists of representatives from various agencies, including the Departments of Finance, and Budget and Management, the national Economic and Development Authority, the Bureau of the Treasury, and the Office of the President.  The BSP made modest purchases of foreign exchange in late 2004 (IMF, 2005).  Tariffs are a relatively "expensive" type of tax distortion. One study has estimated the welfare gains from switching tariffs to output taxes as the revenue instrument could be as high as US$0.24 for each dollar of tax receipts, equivalent to 0.2% of GDP (Can Erbil, 2004).  Tariffs on oil and petroleum imports were raised from 3% to 5% from 2005.  IMF (2004a).  Yap (2004).  It is difficult to ascertain the effects of this trade on national welfare. If increased imports from ASEAN members have on balance displaced less efficient Filipino production, then such trade creation will have raised welfare. However, if on balance increased ASEAN imports have displaced lower priced and more efficient imports from non-ASEAN sources because of the tariff preferences, such trade diversion may have reduced welfare. Thus, discriminatory liberalization differs to non-discriminatory (or mfn) trade liberalization which is unambiguously welfare enhancing.  The ranking is based on the Inward FDI Performance Index and the Inward FDI Potential Index. The Philippines world ranking in FDI performance slipped from 87th in 1998-00 to 96th in 2000-03, while in FDI potential its ranking improved, from 69th in 1990-00 to 57th in 2000-02 (UNCTAD, 2004).  UNCTAD (2004).  Includes approvals by the BOI, Philippine Economic Zone Authority (PEZA), Subic Bay Metropolitan Authority, and Clark Development Corporation. Most of the increase was the result of rises in BOI approvals sourced from Nauru (Department of Trade and Industry, 2004c).  Under its strong reform scenario, growth would fall in 2005 to 4.9% but rise gradually to 6.0% in 2010 (IMF, 2005). WT/TPR/S/149 Trade Policy Review Page  PAGE 16 The Philippines WT/TPR/S/149 Page  PAGE 1 Page I. 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